The last standing industry group – enterprise software, was hit hard last Monday Monday, which basically marked the lows. Just when everyone was turning bearish and one of the best money managers of our times – Stanley Druckenmiller appeared on CNBC to tell us that he sold all his stocks when Trump tweeted about new tariffs in early May, we saw a face-ripping rally.
Most momentum software stocks had a 20-30% intra-week price range. Look at the price action in COUP, MDB, OKTA, TWLO, AYX, SHOP, TTD, etc. Whatever new or old short sellers were hanging out in those names, were squeezed out of their positions.
After epic rallies last week, most software stocks are technically extended. Unless you are a skilled intraday trader, it makes no sense to chase them here from a risk-to-reward point of view. The biotech sector is looking a lot more interesting with setups in TNDM, VCYT, ASND, and others.
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Bull markets correct through sector rotations; many and frequent rotations that can spin your head off if you try to keep up with them on a weekly basis. A couple of weeks ago, we saw capital leaving tech and healthcare and moving into the so-called “old-economy” sectors. Last week, we saw a rotation from hardware to software.
After a major rally, semiconductors are pulling back. Intel’s revenue projections are declining. Xilinx’s growth is slowing down. The semiconductor index (SMH) is up 33% year-to-date. A pullback is absolutely normal. All trends need pullbacks; otherwise, they cannot last long.
In the meantime, software stocks are finally waking up and starting to break out. Many of them are scheduled to report earnings in the next few weeks. Expectations are certainly quite elevated. Maybe, this is why we are not seeing a very enthusiastic market reaction to solid reports – AMZN, NFLX, MSFT, FB, etc.
While biotech, healthcare, and some software stocks are under pressure, the so-called old-economy sectors – finance, manufacturing, and transportation, are shining. Money never sleeps, indeed. It just rotates from one sector to another.
The Nasdaq 100 is at all-time highs led by the enterprise software giant Microsoft. Google and Amazon are not too far behind – both of them are setting up for potential breakout and have earnings due soon. Apple is back to a trillion-dollar valuation.
The current bull market continues to correct through sector rotation. While money is flowing into financials, semiconductors, energy, and software, healthcare and biotech have been under pressure as of late.
Will Disney+ disrupt Netflix or the new online streaming service is not a big positive for Disney and neutral for Netflix. We will know a lot more about how the market perceives it after Netflix’s earnings on Tuesday.
We also cover athleisure stocks – NKE and LULU are consolidating near all-time highs.
Bull markets often correct through sector rotation. When many leading enterprise software stocks were hit last week, the market averages didn’t skip a beat. The money just rotated into other sectors – semiconductors, energy, financials, retailers, biotech.
The dips are still welcomed as buying opportunities by many. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 are less than 2% below new all-time highs. The U.S.-China trade deals seems to be priced in. In other words, expectations going into the next earnings season, which starts next week, are high so companies better not disappoint.