Author: Ivanhoff

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

We have been talking about crypto being the undisputed leader since the election results. Another trend until recently was the underperformance of mega-cap tech companies. This changed last week. META, AMZN, and AAPL erupted to new all-time highs. TSLA and MSFT are almost there. GOOGL and NVDA are still lagging but at least they stopped pulling back.

Interestingly, this pullback coincided with a decline in interest rates. Small caps were supposed to outperform in such an environment. We saw a rotation back into Big Tech instead. 

Anything related to crypto remains in play – COIN, MSTR, HOOD, MARA, BITX, etc. It shouldn’t be otherwise with BTC reaching 100k for the first time in its history. Will this historic round number lead to a rug pull that will shake many out or the underlying demand will keep any dips tepid? No one knows. The latter is more likely as of now but the situation could change quickly. Imagine this – Bitcoin was 0.10 in 2010. That same year, a developer spent 10,000 BTC (then worth $40) to buy two Papa Jones pizzas. The opportunity cost of this transaction is $1Billion as of today. I wonder how many Bitcoin the guy had at the time?

Some say that MSTR has peaked and it’s now on the way down because it is underperforming Bitcoin. I say, not so fast. It is still trading above its rising 20 and 50dma and until this is the case and Bitcoin remains north of 100k, the dips are likely to get bought. Crypto miners like IREN and MARA are setting up for a potential breakout. While it is true that each halving makes mining less lucrative, the increase in the underlying crypto price can more than make up for it. Besides, what matters in the short-term is sentiment. There’s no hotter industry than crypto right now which means the outcome can be both wild and unpredictable. 

In the meantime, other high-momentum stocks continue to rise – RDDT, PLTR, APP are just a few examples of the fact that in a bull market, stocks can go to levels no one can imagine.

The semiconductor sector has been showing relative weakness in the past few months. NVDA has stalled for now which is impacting the entire space. There are exceptions. CRDO and MRVL gapped up after much better-than-expected earnings. AVGO is also setting up for another push higher.

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MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

Interest rates are falling, the US Dollar is pulling back, and the SPY closed the month at new all-time highs. The dips in crypto are getting bought as the new administration is shaping out to be significantly more friendly to the industry. 

NVDA flushed below its 50-day moving average and bounced higher. If it manages to close above 140-141, it will likely recover towards 150 by the end of the year. 

The build-up of AI infrastructure continues with full force. The stocks participating in the process keep making higher lows and higher highs – VRT, VST, COHR, NRG, ANET, etc.

AMZN also bounced and it is setting up near its all-time highs. Anything e-commerce did well in November – SHOP, GLBE.

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Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members. How my ideas/alerts did.

You can find my trading books on Amazon here.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

There have been three distinct themes after the elections. Anything crypto-related has been the clear market leader. Financials is the second best-performing group. Some might say that crypto is part of the financial sector. Lastly, mega-cap companies are notably underperforming, with Tesla being the exception.

Bitcoin reached 100k. MSTR, COIN, HOOD, BITX, and MARA had another strong week. If you don’t own any crypto directly, those five have been the main ways to have some exposure. Some say MSTR is in its parabolic phase. I’m not so sure about it. It will have its violent 30-50% weekly or even daily moves for the rest of the year. This will only make it a more popular trading vehicle among short-term speculators.

Financials had the biggest gap after the elections. Then, they went sideways for a couple of weeks. They finally followed through last week. The market expects deregulation which is good news for an industry that likes to take excessive risks with other people’s money. We are not here to judge. We are here to trade what’s working.

For the first time in a while, tech megacaps are underperforming. Nvidia had its best quarter in history and it still pulled back slightly because of soft guidance. It’s somewhat logical. The best-case scenario has already been priced in. It’ll take a huge earnings surprise to change expectations. I’m not saying this is the top for Nvidia, far from it. Higher prices are coming but the rate of ascent will not be anywhere close to what we saw in the past two years. I’m not even sure it will be much better than the S&P 500. It’s natural to see some of the hot money leave the stock and seek higher returns in more speculative areas of the market. Full disclosure – I still own some NVDA. 

Google had a tough week, dropping about 5%. The odds of splitting the company into two are high. I don’t know why the market thinks this deserves a lower valuation. It has been under pressure and we have to acknowledge that. Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, and Meta haven’t fared much better. The only mega-cap that has done exceptionally well after the elections is Tesla. It added to its gains last week. If it clears 360, it is likely to test 400.

Try my subscription service which includes a private X feed with option and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary, real-time market education, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See what subscribers say about my educational service.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members. How my ideas/alerts did.

You can find my trading books on Amazon here.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.