New Quarter, Same Old Trends

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

The new quarter started last week but not much has changed. 

Mega-cap stocks continue to outperform. META, GOOGL, MSFT, NFLX, AAPL, AMZN, and ARM made new all-time highs. Even laggards like TSLA and AMD had a big bounce. TSLA rallied from 180 to 250 in less than two weeks. AMD had a big range expansion last week and is now setting for an even bigger breakout if it can clear 175. You can bet that options players will be all over this week next week. 

Gold and silver woke up from their slumber and began the quarter with a strong rally. The pullback in the US dollar helped but is not the only reason.

The one notable market divergence from last week was the weakness in Bitcoin. It might be related to Mt. Gox’s distribution of $8.2 Billion worth of Bitcoin. It is expected that the receivers of the coins will sell them as they are up 85x compared to 10 years ago when the exchange collapsed. The market tends to anticipate such events and makes its moves ahead of them. Bitcoin dropped to the VWAP since its rally began in October of 2023 (to around 54k). The last time that VWAP was tested was in January 2024 and led to a 90% rally afterward. 

In the meantime, small caps remain relatively weak. They sold off when rates were rising. Now, they can’t rally when rates are falling. There’s no reason to be a hero and try to force trades where they don’t exist and where there’s no momentum.

The new earnings season starts next week. As usual, financials are the first group to report.

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