Ivanhoff Capital

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

While so many sectors are at or below their 200-day moving average, the Nasdaq Composite is at new all-time highs. AI stocks continue to lead the market. The semiconductor ETF, SMH, gained 4% last week and is now up75% year-to-date. Software stocks are acting constructively – IGV is only up 2.5% YTD and has been choppy, but keeps making higher lows and consolidating in a range between $110 and its 50-day moving average. People are buying even minor dips in tech stocks for multiple reasons – expected growth, enthusiasm about AI, and mainly because it has been the only sector that is trending upwards. Crypto is also consolidating in a tight range near its 3-month highs. There seems to be a lid on it right now – we saw so many upside morning gaps that consistently faded. 

The jobs number on Friday came below estimates. The Fed has a dual mandate – full employment and under 2% inflation. Higher-than-expected unemployment reduces the odds of more rate hikes. If crude oil also pulls back, yields will decline, which would ultimately help more stocks to join the rally. It hasn’t been pretty outside of tech.

The three big catalysts that are likely to shape the price action over the next month or so are Anthropic’s IPO, the mid-term elections, and the war in the Middle East. And the next earnings season starts in a couple of weeks. 

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The main theme last week was the follow-through in AI-related stocks. SMH gained more than 4%. Fiber optics and photonics stocks stole the show as the market is pricing in again the increasing importance of networking equipment for AI agents.

CBRZ +48%, 2x short CBRS. Semis might be leading the market right now, but not all semis are going up. The overhyped AI semiconductor IPO, CBRS, tested its new all-time lows last week.

LITX +31%, 2x long LITE. Photonics stocks outperformed by a mile last week, led by LITE, which is right at its all-time highs. 

COHX +28%, 2x long COHR. Another photonics stock that bounced near its 200dma.

AAOX +28%, 2x long AAOI. Another photonics stock that bounced near its 200dma.

AMAU +23%, 2x long AMAT. Semiconductor stock followed through after testing its 200dma last week.

FNG +22%, 2x long FN

HPEL +20%, 2x long HPE

My subscription service includes a Discord room and private X feed with options and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary, real-time market education, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See what subscribers say about my educational service.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members. See how my ideas/alerts performed.

You can find my trading books on Amazon here.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only, and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

As the Nasdaq 100 consolidates near its all-time highs, the small-cap Russell 2k index is close to its 200-day moving average. It is a true market of stocks, led by a small group of stocks. 

AI -related stocks had a big comeback, led by semiconductors – AMD, ARM, ALAB, CRDO, INTC, QCOM, etc. Software stocks did not have the best close on Friday, but from a bigger-picture point of view, they continue to consolidate constructively. IGV has been stuck in a 100-110 range for multiple weeks. 

Outside of tech and select biotech/diagnostic stocks, market breadth is horrific. Rising yields have hit utilities and consumer staples. Who needs a 3% dividend and low growth when you can get 4% in 1-month Treasuries? Biotechs are also starting to get under pressure – XBI had a false breakout above its 50dma, only to get slammed. Financials remain one of the weakest sectors, as the flattening 10-2yr yield curve is squeezing margins. Basic materials are in the doldrums because of a strong US Dollar. Consumer discretionary and stocks are breaking down left and right due to higher-than-expected inflation. Industrials, homebuilders, and transportation are below their 200dma. Energy is holding a bit better than most, but there is a lot of headline risk with the constant Iran news that impacts crude oil. Healthcare remains in an uptrend, and as we all know, it is probably one of the most defensive sectors. In the meantime, Treasuries continue to dig a hole in the ground. TLT is super extended below its 200- and 50-day moving averages – a quick snapback bounce could alleviate the pressure on stocks.

My subscription service includes a Discord room and private X feed with options and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary, real-time market education, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See what subscribers say about my educational service.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members. See how my ideas/alerts performed.

You can find my trading books on Amazon here.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only, and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.