Ivanhoff Capital

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

The semiconductor group was dismantled last week, and now SMH trades well below its 200-day moving average. The market has been pricing in a Democrat win in the past month or so. We saw an acceleration of that trend after the midterm election results. All AI-related stocks remain under pressure – fiber optics, data centers, servers, chips. Some of them are so extended from their 50-day moving averages that they could easily have massive dead-cat bounces if the right news hit the tape.

Who stands to benefit from tougher AI regulation in the US? Maybe Chinese AI stocks. They bounced after the elections and are showing some near-term relative strength but are still in a severe downtrend, which means there is a lot of overhead supply and rallies will be sold into. It will take time for perceptions and price action to change there. It might not even happen. I am keeping a close eye on them to see if a new uptrend develops.

Zcash might also benefit. It is showing notable relative strength. Just like Bitcoin, only 21 million coins can ever be minted. The difference between them is privacy. Bitcoin uses a transparent public ledger where every transaction can be tracked. Zcash offers optional financial privacy using zero-knowledge proofs. This privacy has become increasingly valuable. This is probably why Zcash went from 40 to 1400 in the past 14 months.

My subscription service includes a Discord room and private X feed with options and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary, real-time market education, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See what subscribers say about my educational service.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members. See how my ideas/alerts performed.

You can find my trading books on Amazon here.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only, and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.

My subscription service includes a Discord room and private X feed with options and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary, real-time market education, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See what subscribers say about my educational service.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members. See how my ideas/alerts performed.

You can find my trading books on Amazon here.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only, and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

We are experiencing one of the weakest earnings seasons since 2022. Amazon and Google missed estimates. Intel gave much lower-than-expected guidance. Even companies like SpaceX and Meta, which beat estimates and raised guidance, sold off. There is a lot of fear surrounding the AI trade; fear that this might be a major top for the group. It seems any news is bad news now and is sold. The most interesting part about it is that it is happening just two weeks before one of the most-anticipated IPOs in the AI space – Anthropic. 

The indexes are currently in a correction mode. The weakness in semis spilled over to software. The market sold Fortinet (FTNT) and ServiceNow (NOW) earnings, and they took the entire industry with them. Small caps (IWM) rallied to their declining 50-day moving average, where they were rejected. The Nasdaq 100 tested its 50dma from underneath in each of the past two weeks, and it was rejected. In the meantime, capital rotated into defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples. 

Every market environment requires a different approach. April-June and August of this year allowed for multi-week swing trades. What’s currently working is intraday and very short-term swings: 1-3 days. The other alternative is cash/short-term Treasuries. There were obviously some exceptions – crude oil, energy, and healthcare have been trending up in October above their 20EMA. Consumer staples also, but were a lot more volatile. Gold and silver have been trending down below their 20EMA in the past six weeks.

The midterm elections are Nov 3rd. I believe they might end up being a catalyst for the next big move, especially if there’s an overnight selloff.

My subscription service includes a Discord room and private X feed with options and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary, real-time market education, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See what subscribers say about my educational service.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members. See how my ideas/alerts performed.

You can find my trading books on Amazon here.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only, and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

Anything AI is still in a correction mode. AI stocks led the market on the way up in the first half of the year. Lately, they have been leading it on the way down. After testing its 50-day moving average, the Nasdaq Composite broke down and might be on its way to test its 200dma or its summer lows near 660. The semiconductors ETF, SMH, is already at its 200-day moving average and only 4% away from its summer lows. The S&P 500 is also below its 50dma but has held a lot better than QQQ because of rotations into energy, retailers, healthcare, and consumer staples.

The big question that remains is whether the groups that are currently showing relative strength will also crack or whether they can lead the market higher. Healthcare and consumer staples are defensive sectors. They lead when the market is in capital protection mode, which happens during corrections. If crude oil and energy stocks continue to make new multi-year highs, inflation expectations also rise, which means more rate hikes and a headwind for the rest of the market. 

Software stocks have been incredibly resilient so far. The software ETF, IGV, is still trading above its June high. Compare that to the semiconductors SMH, which is more than 20% below its June high. We saw that resilience last week, when most software stocks had a powerful bounce while anything AI-related was under heavy pressure. This group could lead if the correction ends next week. It is also a group that is likely to be targeted if the correction persists.

My subscription service includes a Discord room and private X feed with options and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary, real-time market education, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See what subscribers say about my educational service.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members. See how my ideas/alerts performed.

You can find my trading books on Amazon here.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only, and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.