Big Drop in AI Stocks

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Anytime there’s a parabolic move and lasting enthusiasm in the market, the supply comes to cool things down.  The supply comes in the form of IPOs, secondary offering and debt raises. SpaceX is raising $75 Billion; Anthropic – $65 Billion. OpenAI is likely a few weeks from announcing its IPO. Google just had an $85 Billion secondary offering. Amazon will probably also raise money in order to keep paying for its AI infrastructure spending. Of course, the supply will matter at some point, and it could lead to a pullback that is faster and deeper than most expect. We saw it on June 5th, when the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) dropped almost 5% on more than 2x its average traded volume. Semiconductors ETF, SMH, declined 9% on the biggest volume since its last base. It is normal to see market leaders like MU, MRVL, DELL, INTC, ARM, AMD, SNDK, and others pull back and test their 20 or 50-day moving average. It is a different question, for most of them, such a pullback would mean a 20% to 40% correction.

The April jobs report came much stronger than expected, while March was revised higher. In the meantime, the latest inflation readings came much higher than the Fed’s target. In theory, this means more hikes ahead, which would shake the confidence in this bull market. In practice, I don’t think many of the Fed members will dare to raise rates, but the potential for it could keep the market on edge.

This bull market is not likely to be over. We might see a deeper-than-expected pullback that will scare people out of their positions. This is normal market behavior. The best thing that could happen for the sustainability of an uptrend is a multi-day pullback. It would create much better setups and entry points. I am excited about the possibility of it.

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Tech Stocks Continue to Lead

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Antropic filed for an IPO, which is accelerating the trend in many AI stocks. Memory – MU, SNDK, WDC; semis – ARM, MRVL, INTC, AMD; servers – DELL, AI data centers – NBIS, CRWV have been on epic runs. Going parabolic ahead of a widely expected event typically leads to sell-the-news action. If you are riding a hot trend, you know that it will likely give back 10-20% of its gains when it reverses and stops you out.

The rally in tech is not just about semiconductors anymore. Quite a few software stocks crushed earnings estimates this quarter and embarked on their own epic run – DDOG, TWLO, CRWD, FTNT, etc. It was always clear that not all software stocks are going to be disrupted by AI, but there was a period when the market sold anything software. Not that it is coming back to its senses, it is separating the potential winners from the losers in the space.

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The first dip of the rally was bought

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Two of the main characteristics of a bull market are corrections through sector rotation and dips in market leaders being bought aggressively. We saw both in the past week or so. As AI-related stocks took a break, software and solar broke out. Then, the semiconductor ETF, SMH, tested its 20-day EMA, where it quickly found support and returned to new all-time highs despite weakness in its largest holding, NVDA. 

This was the first proper pullback after the rally began on March 31. Small caps IWM tested its previous highs near 271 and bounced. AI data center stock NBIS, semis like INTC, AMD, ARM, and QCOM had a 20% or so pullback above their rising 20EMA, which was welcomed as a buying opportunity. In the meantime, quantum computing stocks received a cash injection from the government and woke up – RGTI, INFQ, QBTS, IONQ, etc. Space-related stocks accelerated their ascent in anticipation of SpaceX IPO – RKLB, RDW, LUNR, VOYG, VELO, etc. 

There is currently a lot more fear of missing out and greed than fear of losing in the tape. The market still does not care about elevated inflation, high oil prices, and galloping interest rates. This is what bull markets do. They climb a constant wall of worry. 

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