Ivanhoff Capital

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

Year-to-date, crude oil is up 70%, the small-cap index Russell 2k is up 6%, and the S&P 500 is flat. The semiconductors ETF, SMH, is up 23% and sitting at new all-time highs, while the software ETF, IGV, is down almost 30% and at multi-year lows. A true market of stocks environment. 

There’s a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East. The moment it became clear, most AI-infrastructure stocks had a quick V-shaped recovery. Some of them were rising even ahead of the peace talk negotiations announcement. Now, we are at a point when many are extended for fresh swing entries – MRVL, GLW, NBIS, TER, AVGO, AMD, AEHR, AAOI, HUT, AXTI, TTMI, INTC, BE, LRCX, SNDK, etc. This velocity of the rally means two things: one, it caught many unprepared and underinvested; and two, the next pullback will very likely be bought aggressively. 

In the meantime, crude oil remains a wild card. There’s a reason I called the real Vix of 2026. If peace negotiations fall apart and crude oil resumes its ascent, everything that rallied in the past week and a half will come right back.

Sign up for my premium service to read the rest of my market view and ideas.

My subscription service includes a Discord room and private X feed with options and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary, real-time market education, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See what subscribers say about my educational service.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members. See how my ideas/alerts performed.

You can find my trading books on Amazon here.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only, and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

Last week, we saw an oversold bounce on expectations that the Middle East war would soon come to an end. QQQ and SPY rallied to their declining 20-day moving averages, where they found initial resistance. 

It is remarkable how resilient stocks remain despite the price of crude oil nearly doubling in just six weeks. Historically, almost every U.S. recession since WWII has been preceded by a sharp rise in oil prices. Given that the average recessionary drawdown is approximately 24%, the market appears somewhat optimistic – the S&P 500 is trading about 6% below its all-time high. The market even bought the bad news on Thursday – stocks gapped down on Trump’s war comments and quickly recovered.

Despite all the scary headlines and excessive volatility, there might even be a follow-through day in the indexes next week. The IBD definition of a FTD is a 1% gain in an index above the previous day’s volume if it comes 4 to 7 days after the latest market low. The good news is that there are stocks to buy if there’s one. I am not that confident that such buys will amount to much. 

Some stocks and ETFs already broke out last week…

Sign up for my premium service to read the rest of my market view and ideas.

My subscription service includes a Discord room and private X feed with options and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary, real-time market education, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See what subscribers say about my educational service.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members. See how my ideas/alerts performed.

You can find my trading books on Amazon here.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only, and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

The selling has accelerated. SPY is now below its volume-weighted average price since its April 2025 lows during the tariff war correction. We are in the midst of a different war now with even more serious consequences for the entire world – a potential energy crisis and stagflation. The next potential support for SPY is around 610.

It is rare to see the market panic and sell everything. Those periods typically don’t last long and are a precursor to bottoming. The major stock indexes around the world are already down 10-20% from their recent highs. Last week, we finally saw some elements of panic selling as even the last remaining momentum leaders started to crack. This is actually positive for the future prospects of the market. The sooner a potential crisis is priced in, the sooner the market will be able to see through the chaos and quickly determine the potential winners. Look at the price action in ZM, for example, during the Covid selloff in 2020. Back then, SPY went down 35% in less than two months. During that time, ZM made a new all-time high and gained 5x in the following seven months. There will always be winners and losers, and the market does a good job highlighting them.

Take, for example, the current crisis. The energy sector is having one of the best years in its history so far. So many, otherwise slowly moving and boring, oil and gas stocks have been making new all-time highs on a weekly basis. Many of the chemical-related stocks are also pushing to new highs as they benefit from shortages  – MEOH, CF, DOW, CC, etc. The solar stock SEDG is also gaining notable relative strength – the longer this energy crisis lasts, the more people and countries invest in solar and nuclear. Obviously, when the market smells a potential end to this war, many of these stocks are going to take a serious haircut.

It is good to keep in mind that regulators have the same playbook for every serious crisis – they throw a lot of liquidity into the system. When that happens again, gold, crypto, and many stocks are likely to have their time of day again. Until then, it is important to protect capital, confidence, and stay in good trading shape. 

Sign up for my premium service to read the rest of my market view and ideas.

My subscription service includes a Discord room and private X feed with options and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary, real-time market education, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See what subscribers say about my educational service.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members. See how my ideas/alerts performed.

You can find my trading books on Amazon here.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only, and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.