Ivanhoff Capital

Every week, the Momentum 40 list highlights 40 of the current market leaders – typically high-growth stocks with high relative strength and powerful technical setups. The Momentum 40 list is an excellent idea generation tool for long-term trend-followers, position traders, and short-term swing traders.

Some of the notable movers this year include VIAV +101% in 12 weeks, INTC +147% in 7 weeks, AEHR +118% in 4 weeks, AAOI +245% in 10 weeks, BE +190% in 17 weeks, MRVL +92% in 8 weeks, VRT +114% in 18 weeks, LWLG +127% in 4 weeks, and many others between 50% and 100%, a whole lot more with losses under 10%. MU was on the list for 189% in 26 weeks, then it was sold. It was bought back 3 weeks ago, and it is already up another 59%.  

I’ve been posting the Momentum 40 list since 2010. Every Friday, I would send the changes an hour or so before the market closes – which stocks are leaving and which are joining. It’s basically a trend-following system that requires action once per week. The losers are cut as quickly as possible, and the winners stay as long as needed. It’s a system that works, and it has outperformed significantly over the years. Year-to-date, the list is up 63%, if we assume an equal-weighted allocation of 2.5% for each stock. The list had many other strong years of 30%+. It was up more than 80% in 2020, but I haven’t seen such a strong performance so early in the year. It is probably not sustainable. This post might end up being a contrarian indicator in the short-term. What’s more important is that the trend-following system Momentum 40 is robust, and it works. There’s always room for improvement. For example, if every loss is kept at 7% and there’s a simple market timing element like keeping a higher cash position when the indexes are under their 50 or 200-day moving average, the results can be even better.

My subscription service includes a Discord room and private X feed with options and stock ideas, concise market commentary via email, real-time market education, the trend-following system for market leaders, Momentum 40, and more. See what subscribers say about my educational service.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members. See how my ideas/alerts performed.

You can find my trading books on Amazon here.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only, and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

Last week, we discussed how extended semiconductor stocks are from their 50-day moving average and how likely it is for them to pull back. They tried to pull back earlier in the week. SMH and QQQ didn’t even test their rising 10-day simple moving average, and they shot back to new all-time highs. The V-shaped recovery has left many underinvested, and now they are eager to buy every small dip. This is what creates the so-called lock-out rally – if you are patiently waiting for a good entry, you might miss the first 30-50% of a move. 

If you are a retail trader, it’s always better to be on the sidelines wishing you were in than to be in wishing you were on the sidelines. The situation is entirely different if you are managing other people’s money. Missing a rally is the biggest professional mistake you can make. This is why the dips are so tepid, and the buying is impatient. The strong earnings reports are making the FOMO even stronger. Semis continue to crush estimates. SNDK is expected to earn $160 per share in 2027. They made $3 in 2025. Megacaps AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL also beat estimates and the market reacted favorably. Even select software stocks are gapping up to new 52-week highs on better than expected earnings – we hadn’t seen that in a long time. SBUX and COCO broke out last week, too. So it is not just AI-related stocks getting all the inflows. The market rally is expanding into other areas. 

Don’t get me wrong. I am not suggesting we drop all proper risk management guidelines and start chasing. There will be dips. Even in the strongest tapes, there are dips. Even if they are to a rising 10 or 20EMA, it’s better to enter on a pullback with a tight stop than to mindlessly chase extended stocks. We saw it last week. AAOI, AXTI, AEHR dropped 20-30% in a few days. They found support near their rising 20EMAs and bounced back 30-40% in a few days.

Sign up for my premium service to read the rest of my market view and ideas.

My subscription service includes a Discord room and private X feed with options and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary, real-time market education, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See what subscribers say about my educational service.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members. See how my ideas/alerts performed.

You can find my trading books on Amazon here.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only, and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

It is a bull market. Even the tiniest dips are getting bought. Everything is very extended, especially semis, but they are not really pulling back yet. Earnings keep coming hot and, in a way, justifying the chase. TXN, INTC, LRCX crushed estimates and guided higher again, foreshadowing that any other semiconductor company will probably do the same. ARM and AMD area already at new all-time highs after gaining 50% in a couple of weeks. Even the slower-moving NVDA broke out. The market is not waiting. It only needs a small hint and is quick to price the expected future. The beginning of a move is always based on fundamentals. But the last one-third to one-half of a momentum move is pure speculation driven by fear of missing out and short squeezes.

I know semis might seem invincible right now, but keep in mind that nothing goes straight up. Even the strongest stocks regularly test their rising 10, 20, and 50dma as we saw with the aerospace group last week. Most semis are currently so extended that a normal test of their 20EMA would mean a 20-30% pullback.

In the meantime, the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, and the US doesn’t seem closer to a peace deal with Iran. Crude oil has begun to perk up. If anything can scare market speculators right now, it is another spike in crude oil and escalation in the Middle East.

Sign up for my premium service to read the rest of my market view and ideas.

My subscription service includes a Discord room and private X feed with options and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary, real-time market education, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See what subscribers say about my educational service.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members. See how my ideas/alerts performed.

You can find my trading books on Amazon here.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only, and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.