Ivanhoff Capital

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

After many months of hibernation, crypto erupted and didn’t look back. Some say that the reason is the Clarity Act, which seems closer to reality. Others: the accelerated attempts of the Treasury to monetize government debt (buy long-dated Treasuries to reduce interest rates). What matters is that the narrative has changed and now anything crypto-related is likely to remain in play for the foreseeable few months. We approached via ETHU, which is 2x long Ethereum. There will be more to come.

Gold also had a sizable bounce for basically the same reasons as crypto. It already started to perk up two weeks ago. Other metals like silver and copper also rallied. We approached this theme via FCX, which broke out from a multi-month base. 

In the meantime, the market remains allergic to almost anything AI-related. Semis tried to reclaim their 50-day moving average last week, only to be swiftly rejected. Some of the biggest downside movers came from the AI theme last week – NBIS, BE, AEHR, etc. The whole group has been very choppy lately. Most trending moves in the space only last a few days before a quick reversal in the other direction.

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MarketSurge powers the charts in this article.

1. MRNX +176%, 2x long MRNA. MRNA had a huge-volume 100% gap after reporting positive Phase 3 trial results for its Melanoma cancer vaccine. Not all would dare to chase a 100% gap, but this is often how even bigger moves start if the news behind it is material. MRNA offered a clear 15-minute opening-range breakout entry at the start of the day, then a VWAP pullback entry mid-day.

2. TEMT +85%, 2x long TEM. TEM rallied with MRNA and the rest of biotech. Tempus acquired Personalis, whose tools identify unique markers in a patient’s cancer cells, enabling Moderna to craft a custom mRNA vaccine that targets those exact features. TEM is highly shorted (31% of its float!), so those three back-to-back strong accumulation days are partially due to short covering. Now, every swing trader will wait for a light-volume pullback to enter for the potential of a second leg higher.

3. XRPT +83%, 2x long XRP. Last week was all about crypto. The Clarity Act seems closer than ever, and the government is accelerating the purchase of its own debt, so owning some crypto now starts to look like a good hedge/diversification against the reckless deficit spending in Washington. The story could always change, but so far the momentum is back, and such high-volume bursts after long periods of neglect tend to last.

4. ETHU +62%, 2x long Ethereum. This is the one that I bought on Tuesday alongside BITU.

5-10. MSTX +59% – 2x long MSTR, SBTU, BMNU, CONX, BLSH, SOLT – crypto derivatives

The gold miners ETF, $GDXU, was up 42%, and it didn’t even make the Top 20 for the week. GDXU is a 3x long gold miners ETF. Gold and other metals are rallying for the same reasons crypto is: a weakening dollar and debt monetization. Gold and gold miners have been under notable accumulation since early August.

Other notables include: NBIZ +50%, 2x long NBIS. The market has been allergic to anything AI lately. After a strong earnings reaction the previous week, NBIS reversed and is now testing its earnings gap. I am not sure it will hold it. And this is one of the strongest AI stocks currently, aside from DELL, MU, and SNDK.

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Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only, and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

July consumer inflation came in at 3.4%. This is significantly higher than the Fed’s 2% target, and yet most stocks rallied. The number was within analysts’ estimates, which supposedly means lower chances of the Fed raising rates at its next meeting. This is how the market works. It is a sentiment machine in the short term.

Inflation wasn’t really the big news last week. It was the reaction to NBIS (Nebius) and SMCI’s earnings, and SNDK (SanDisk) investors’ meeting. As expected, NBIS beat estimates and raised guidance. All AI stocks have done the same so far this summer. The surprising part was the market reaction. Instead of selling the great news as it did with MU, SNDK, WDC, ASML, among many others earlier this earnings season, it gapped up and never looked back, lifting the entire AI data center space with it.

SMCI beat earnings estimates by 84%. It gapped up and ran, boosting other AI server stocks like DELL and HPE.

Memory stocks were left for dead and underperforming in a strong market before SanDisk reaffirmed its strong growth prospects during an investors’ meeting. Those comments sparked a rally in SNDK, WDC, SKHY, STX, MU, among others. There was no new material information. The only thing that has changed is the market sentiment.

Now the big question is whether the semiconductor group can also join the rally. SMH is stuck in a tight-range consolidation right near its flat-ish 50-day moving average. It won’t take much to break out if the overall tape remains strong.

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Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members. See how my ideas/alerts performed.

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Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only, and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.