Humans in general are biased and look for confirmatory evidence. When someone is bullish on oil, they tend to pick the pro-oil arguments in whatever they read. Very few people train themselves to look for dis-confirming evidence.
It is very difficult to practice the latter, but you should train yourself to ask why you believe your longs might go down, not why they should go up.
If you don’t see anything, you don’t initiate a new position. You take risk only when you see an opportunity. Make it a habit to ask yourself for each trading or investing decision – do you have an edge or do you just hope to be right. Hope is not a strategy.
I will never forget Robert Wilson’s advice: If you have as much money as I’ve read you do in the paper, you are an asshole if you manage anybody’s money except your own. To go up 100%, you’ve got to be willing to go down 20%, and you can’t go down 20% with other people’s money