Top One Percent Stocks – Feb 3rd

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I am continuing my weekly habit to post some interesting swing trade setups among the strongest stocks currently in the market. I look at the strongest 1-2% stocks. This means stocks having a relative strength rating of 99 or 98. I am interested in two major setups: a breakout, which I can buy intraday or an anticipation setup, which I can potentially buy the next day if it clears new 3-day high.

Here are a few anticipation setups for next week: GKOS, RARX, INSP, VCEL, and FN. As you can see, biotech stocks are dominating.

Check out my latest book: Swing Trading with Options – How to trade big trends for big returns.

Momentum Monday – The New Trading Range

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When SPY broke below its 260-280 box two weeks ago, it entered into a downward spiral and quickly dropped to the low 230s. Few were prepared for a 10% fall in seven trading days. The oversold bounce came a bit later than expected by most but it was a powerful one. Those who bought the extreme weakness too early, are very motivated to sell when their break-even levels are reached. This is why bear markets characterize with monster rallies followed by powerful reversals.

What’s next?

SPY has most likely entered into another box and we will see range-bound trading in the next few weeks. That range could be 240 to 260, or 230 to 250. The smartest way to approach the new box is to play the ranges and stay away from breakouts and breakdowns because most of them are likely to fail on longer time frames.

In the last Momentum Monday for 2018, we covered enterprise software stocks like OKTA, TEAM, and WDAY; the coming competition between DIS and NFLX; the price action in SPY, AAPL, and others.

Happy New Year!
Check out my latest book: Swing Trading with Options – How to trade big trends for big profits.

A Few Recent IPOs that I am Watching

The IPO market is gradually coming back. After the huge run-ups in ACIA and TWLO, more companies are eager to go public. We may not be too far from seeing a really big fish filing for an IPO – Snapchat or Uber.

Based on current price action, the market is eager for new IPOs. Taking into account that all new companies offer only 10 to 20% of their float and thousands of funds compete to own a limited number of shares, it is not a big surprise that IPOs are a favorite trading vehicle for many traders.

Here are a few names that I am watching: NTNX, COTV, NH, PI, TPIC, LN, PTI, YRD, AVXS, AIRG, FLGT, etc.

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About Short Selling

Profits in the stock market can usually be made faster by selling stocks short than by buying them. The reason is that price declines are usually much steeper than price rises, which occur more gradually, over a longer period of time, and are usually accompanied by a healthy amount of pessimism that gradually lessens the longer the price rise continues. Price declines, on the other hand, contain an element of panic that increases as stock prices plunge lower.

Source: Superperformance Stocks by Richard Love

6 Trading Insights from Mark Douglas

1. The four trading fears

95% of the trading errors you are likely to make will stem from your attitudes about being wrong, losing money, missing out, and leaving money on the table – the four trading fears

2. The proverbial empathy gap

You may already have some awareness of much of what you need to know to be a consistently successful trader. But being aware of something doesn’t automatically make it a functional part of who you are. Awareness is not necessarily a belief. You can’t assume that learning about something new and agreeing with it is the same as believing it at a level where you can act on it.

3. The market doesn’t generate happy or painful information

From the markets perspective, it’s all simply information. It may seem as if the market is causing you to feel the way you do at any given moment, but that’s not the case. It’s your own mental framework that determines how you perceive the information, how you feel, and, as a result, whether or not you are in the most conducive state of mind to spontaneously enter the flow and take advantage of whatever the market is offering.

4. The flaws of fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis creates what I call a “reality gap” between “what should be” and “what is.” The reality gap makes it extremely difficult to make anything but very long-term predictions that can be difficult to exploit, even if they are correct.

5. A good trader is a confident trader

I’ve worked with countless traders who would spend hours doing market analysis and planning trades for the next day Then, instead of putting on the trades they planned, they did something else. The trades they did put on were usually ideas from friends or tips from brokers. I probably don’t have to tell you that the trades they originally planned, but didn’t act on, were usually the big winners of the day. This is a classic example of how we become susceptible to unstructured, random trading—because we want to avoid responsibility.

6. Anything could happen to any stock

The best traders have evolved to the point where they believe, without a shred of doubt or internal conflict, that “anything can happen.” They don’t just suspect that anything can happen or give lip service to the idea. Their belief in uncertainty is so powerful that it actually prevents their minds from associating the “now moment” situation and circumstance with the outcomes of their most recent trades. They have learned, usually quite painfully, that they don’t know in advance which edges are going to work and which ones aren’t. They have stopped trying to predict outcomes. They have found that by taking every edge, they correspondingly increase their sample size of trades, which in turn gives whatever edge they use ample opportunity to play itself out in their favor, just like the casinos.

Source: “Trading in the zone”