Category: Uncategorized

A bunch of stocks from various industries are gracing the all-time high list. I guess this should not be surprising, given that $SPY is having its second best month in the recorded history. All major indexes are positive for the year, so performance anxiety might be a major decision making factor for many institutions for the rest of the year.

One of the main characteristics of market uptrends is that they provide more long setups that any human being is physically able to watch or take. Filtering and focusing on the ideas with the highest potential for growth is of utmost importance.

Chasing extended names is never smart from an opportunity cost perspective. Therefore I like to filter new breakouts based on 3 month performance and float. The existence of an immediate catalyst is also a big plus. Here is a list of today’s breakouts to new all-time high that make me the most impression technically:

Mortgage Investment

Business Software

Oil and Gas

Generic Drugs

Application Software

Biotech

Precious metals are outperforming handily today, foreshadowing the market expectations for the widely anticipated New resolution of the European Credit crisis. There will be currency dilution involved and capital is slowly moving back to gold and silver as alternative assets that cannot be monetized. The U.S. will also participate in the bailout via IMF, so the U.S. dollar will also be affected.

The forced liquidation in gold is behind our back and there is a good chance it might move higher from here. Just last week, $GLD was on a precipice of breaking down, but as it has often been the case with gold lately, it rallied when everyone was turning bearish.

From my perspective:

– If the market likes the deal, precious metals should rally;

– If the market does not like the deal, capital is likely to flow into both Treasuries and precious metals;

The Fly also offers his perspective on the metals, naming them “the only long trade here” based on seasonality, among other reasons.

As always, I focus my attention on liquid names with the highest relative strength and the smallest float: $RIC

Long from 11.30 with a stop at 10.50 – discipline should always trump conviction.

Expect the unexpected. Just when it seemed that the news from the financial sector could not get any worse as it became clear that a substantial portion of banks earnings over the past 2 quarters were imaginary derivative of creative accounting practices, finnies rallied and in my mind contributed to a technical short squeeze in industries you would not believe:

Residential construction: $TOL $LEN $BZH $SPF $DHI $MDC

Industrial equipment: $GWW $SWK  $STRL

General building materials: $USG $AWI $GFF $NX