Being in the Prediction Business

“After studying forecasting day and night for 30 years, I realized that I don’t know what the market is going to do, and I’ve yet to find anyone who can consistently and reliably forecast an uncertain future” – Ned Davis

“My financial success stands in stark contrast with my ability to forecast events… all my forecasts are extremely tentative and subject to constant revision in the light of market developments” – George Soros

“The art of prophecy is difficult,¬†especially¬†with respect to the future” – Mark Twain

Some Trading Wisdoms

“Never let the fear of striking out get in your way” – Babe Ruth

“If you can’t take a small loss, sooner or later you will have to take the mother of all losses” – Ed Seykota

“Don’t think about what the market is going to do. You have absosutely no control over that. Think about what you are going to do if it gets there.” – William Eckhardt

“I turned from a loser to a winner when I was able to separate my ego needs from making money. When I was able to accept being wrong. Before that, admitting I was wrong was more upsetting than losing money” – Marty Schwartz

“The worst mistake a trader can make is to miss a major profit opportunity. 95% of the profits come from only 5% of the trades” – Richard Dennis

Picking Tops and Bottoms

“I never try to buy a bottom or sell a top. Even if you manage to pick the bottom, the market can end up sitting there for years and tying up your capital. You don’t want to have a position before a move has started.” ~ Randy McKay

Market tends to go in the direction that will surprise negatively the biggest number of participants.

The obvious rarely happens. The unexpected constantly occurs.