Blowing bubbles

George Soros theory of reflexivity explains very clearly why investment crowds have the habit to create bubbles. Investors make their bets based on expectations for the future. Those expectations often turn into self-fulfilling prophecies. Why do people invest in stocks? For one very simple reason – to make money. For example, people start to buy  stock (or asset class) “YYY” on expectations for huge future earnings’ growth.  How they have reached to this conclusion is not entirely clear and this is not the point. The underlying reason might be recent acceleration in earnings’ growth or/and involvement in breakthrough technology that might revolutionize the way people live. We don’t know and we don’t have to know.  All we know is that YYY is rising, fast and substantially.  As investors buy, the price of the stock continues to climb and climb. Higher stock price is easily transferable into:

          easier access to big amounts of low interest credit, which can be used to acquire a major competitor or to buy the best equipment available, which will reduce operating costs significantly;

          higher rewards for employees, which will attract the brightest and the smartest from all over the world;   

In the majority of cases, those expectations for the future growth never come true and this is why the majority of bubbles don’t last long, but along the way, they had made rich many disciplined investors. In some cases, all those changes might lead to what investors have expected at first place – a significant earnings’ growth.

Those, who decide to not participate in the bubble, will sit on the side, watching how others are getting filthy rich. They are convinced that it is a bubble, but don’t know when it will burst.  After a month or two, they will also decide to enter the bubble by making it even bigger. As long as the fundamentals keep up with the expectations, the process will remain sustainable and the bubble won’t burst. The point is that the expectations never keep up with the fundamentals. If fundamentals are moving with the speed of the sound, the expectations will move with the speed of the light. As the time passes, the gap between the two will widen. Many short sellers will try to stop the insanity and will get burned along the way, adding fuel to the flames as most bubbles tend to reach extremes not expected by anyone. Negative yield on the 30-year treasuries, anyone?  People’s greed (expectations) is like a car without breaks. It doesn’t stop until the car falls of a cliff and bursts in flames. At one point the price will reach levels that are immensely unsustainable for the underlying fundamentals and a first wave of investors will leave. Suddenly, more and more people will be obsessed of fear that they might lose and will try to exit. Have you ever witnessed what happens when hundreds of people try to exit through one small door simultaneously? In the real world, people are getting stomped. In the financial world, liquidity suddenly dries out and exit is possible several levels down the drain, if you are lucky.

Now imagine that shorting was prohibited. In this case a bubble will reach far bigger size, since there won’t be a chance for short sellers to take some of the steam off that is moving the bubble train. Market makers will quickly realize that it is not profitable to take the other side of a trade in what is about to become or it is a big bubble. The liquidity will fall drastically and the prices will go parabolic. When the bubble bursts,( and it will, but no one knows when), the crash will be much more severe and faster. There won’t be any short sellers to cover their positions and to offer liquidity for those, who want to exit. 

2008 in numbers

Best performing stocks in 2008

  • EBS +413% / Biotechnology
  • STSI +345%/ Cigarettes
  • CRD – B +258% / Business services
  • GAI +245% / Appliances
  • AIPC +224% / Processed and Packaged goods
  • MXC +210% / Independent Oil and Gas
  • DARA +194$ / Biotechnology
  • KIRK +173% / Home Furnishing Store
  • FINL +151% / Apparel Stores
  • GBR +147% / Oil & Gas exploration

Worst performing stock markets in 2008*

  • Iceland -94%
  • Bulgaria -80%
  • Ukraine -73%
  • UAE -72%
  • Serbia -71%
  • Lithuania -71%
  • Romania -70%
  • Slovenia -68%
  • Vietnam -67%
  • Greece -66%

* local currencies valuations
The Island’s crone was crashed and in terms of US dollars, the decline in Iceland’s stock market is 98%. The Dollar gained 4.5% against the Euro in 2008, therefore if the decline in many European markets is measured in USD, it would be steeper. Another fact that needs to be mentioned is that most of people in Eastern European countries don’t invest their money in the stock market. They tend to prefer to use their savings to start their own business, buy a house or just keep them in a bank, which tends to pay 5 to 7% annual interest on one year deposits in euros or dollars.

Best Performing Stock Markets in 2008*

  • Tunisia +10%
  • Costa Rica -4%
  • Morocco -6%
  • Venezuela -9%
  • Botswana -15%
  • Slovakia -19%
  • Lebanon -21%
  • Chile -23%
  • Mexico -25%
  • South Africa -27%

*valuation in local currencies, therefore the table represents nominal growth. If we take the inflation into account, some of the numbers won’t look that encouraging (if one digit negative growth is considered good). Venezuela is “enjoying” an enormous inflation and this trend is expected to continue in the near future. Zimbabwe used to top the list of best performing stock markets (in local currency), but the reason for that is not healthy economic growth, but gigantic hyperinflation. It is not uncommon to see a Zimbabwean to hold a single 500,000,000 banknote in his/her hands (yes with eight zeros behind) and such a banknote is rarely good for even a simple lunch.

Commodities performance in 2008

  • Oil -55%
  • Copper -58%
  • Platinum -42%
  • Natural gas -22%
  • Orange juice -50%
  • Wheat -25%
  • Silver -29%
  • Corn -14%
  • Coffee -29%
  • Gold +5%

Many investors believe that gold was the best performing commodity in 2008, but they are wrong. Cocoa was up more than 60%, as the insatiable people’s demand for chocolate was not easy to met due to poor harvest.

Let’s hope that 2009 will bring better numbers and more reasons to smile in everyone’s house.
Happy New 2009!

The way to learn

Learning to trade is not very different from learning any other discipline. It takes a lot of efforts and finding the right teachers. At some level of experience, the best teacher for you will be you, but before such level is reached having someone to show you the direction of least resistance is priceless.

For example, in his early years, one of the most notorious composers ever –  Mozart, imitated and mimicked the work of others. From their lessons, later in his life, he gradually builds his own unique style. This is a common path to success in music. Common path to success in trading.

In music first you learn the notes. Then you try to replay other guys’ compositions until one day you start to compose in your own unique style. In trading, first you learn the basics of supply and demand, some common market anomalies and basic market psychology. Then you read about other, already successful, people’s methods and try to mimic them until one day you become experienced enough to create your own style of trading that satisfy you financial and personal goals best. These are three different levels of expertese in each field and they should be mastered in the mentioned sequence.

Open your eyes

Seth Godin has an interesting article on finding the one, who can really help you. Very thoughtful and a must read.

“People in charge can rarely help you, because they are rarely (truly) in charge. Billionaires can’t help you, either, because they have their defense force fields on full strength during meetings like this. In fact, the person who can help you the most is almost always someone who doesn’t appear that powerful on the surface.

Remember, it’s not just that they can help you. It’s that they want to help you. Famous people qualify in neither category.

So, who is it? Hint, it’s not the Wizard of Oz or the Pope or Barack Obama. It’s someone not famous, someone who actually makes things happen and someone who actually cares. Think hard… Got it?”

Step by step…

1. Create a clear, concise method that will serve you to find trading ideas. A method consist of simple to implement consecutive steps based on market anomalies. A method should be derived from your trading goals and it always incorporates in itself money management techniques for capital preservation.

2. Use those trading ideas to create a plan of action.

3. A plan of action usually consists of two or more scenarios. For example if X happens, I will go with trading idea A; if Y happens, I will go with trading idea B. We create different scenarious, because we can’t control the market. We forecast what might happen and plan how we will react if certain event or a process happens.

Having a clear method helps you to be consistent and disciplined in finding new trading ideas. Creating a plan helps you to profit from your trading ideas. It assist you to focus on your goals.