Five Stocks With Big Earnings Surprises

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Stocks that receive favorable market reaction after reporting big earnings surprises tend to keep going higher in strong bull markets. Some recent examples include MELI, IONS, ZS, and TNDM.

A favorable market reaction is a high-volume range expansion to new 50-day high – a gain of at least 5% on at least 2x the average daily volume.

Here are some stocks that went up immediately after their earnings report after beating estimates by a wide margin that might be setting up for another leg higher:

EXEL broke out from an eight-week base.

GKOS pulled back all the way to its 50-day moving average where it bounced and now it is setting up again for a potential breakout.

DXCM didn’t gap up after their big earnings surprise but managed to consolidate in a tight range near its all-time highs and it is now setting up for a potential breakout.

Check out my latest book: Swing Trading with Options – How to trade big trends for big returns.

Momentum Monday – Looking for Relative Strength

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The major U.S. stock indexes pulled back from areas of major resistance. $280 for SPY, 175 for QQQ, and 160 for IWM (Russell 2000). Is this the beginning of a significant leg lower or just another garden-variety shallow correction. Judging by the price action in many momentum stocks, it looks more like the latter.

Momentum stocks are often leading the market, higher and lower. If the market declines and most momentum names go sideways or even try to break out, the correction is most likely a buying opportunity. This is exactly what are seeing in the current market.

Keep in mind that no indicator has a 100% success rate. If some unexpected news comes out of nowhere and surprises the market, those same momentum stocks will get hit hard and will fall with the rest of the market. This is why I am using the expression “most likely” – it’s a probability, not a certainty.

Check out my latest book: Swing Trading with Options – How to trade big trends for big returns.

The Best Performers of the Past 10 Years

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This week marks ten years since the bottom of the Great Recession in March 2009. Since then, the S&P 500 has almost quadrupled (total return), Google is up 6x, Apple is up 9x,  AMZN has gone up more than 20x, and Netflix is up 54x (after experiencing an 80% drawdown along the way).

In March 2009, the market was in panic mode. Many stocks were trading like their companies were going out of business. This is why many of the best performers in the past decade were under $5 per share (some were even under $1 a share). Bear markets create incredible long-term opportunities, but most people are not psychologically equipped to take advantage of them. Holding big winners for the long-term is never as easy as it seems in hindsight.

In the past decade, there are 235 stocks that went up more than 1000%.

Out of them, 81 gained more than 2000%.

Out of them, 42 increased more than 3000%.

Out of them, 14 rose more than 5000%.

With returns like these, who needs angel investing?

Here are the top five performers for the past decade:

1.PATK +21,546%

2. JAZZ +15,010%

3. NXST +14,713%

4. MGPI +10,940%

5. MITK +10,720%

Check out my latest book: Swing Trading with Options – How to trade big trends for big returns.

The Five Strongest ETFs In The Current Market

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I ran a screen looking for relatively liquid ETFs with a relative strength above 90. A few themes stand out: palladium, gold, Brazil, marijuana, and software.

This list can tell us how financial markets are seeing the world in the next six to twelve months.

Two of the leaders are precious metals that typically go up when inflation and political turbulence expectations rise. What’s even more interesting is that palladium and gold have risen despite of a relative strong U.S. dollar.

Brazil has a new President, who is supposedly pro-business.

Marijuana is a brand new industry that is just entering the investable universe of many money managers. It could also be just another fad. No one really knows. Things always look easy and clear in hindsight.

And software, which has been leading since early 2018. – the upgrade cycle in the corporate world continues with full force. One sector’s rising expenses are always another sector’s rising revenues. Enterprise software companies have been big beneficiaries in the past year or so.

Keep in mind that MJ, PALL, and PSJ are the only non-leveraged ETFs on the list. Leveraged ETFs are good short-term trading instruments. They are rarely good long-term investment vehicles. In fact, all leveraged ETFs are structured to lose money over time.


Check out my latest book: Swing Trading with Options – How to trade big trends for big returns.

Higher Low?

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The big 5% Wednesday was followed by a strong intra-day pullback but a strong close. In the end, all major market averages finished near the highs of their daily range.

Overall, today was a big win for the bulls. There are more stocks setting up and looking constructively. With all positives in mind, it makes sense to continue to be cautious and to operate with the thesis that this is just a rally within an ongoing bear market, which means stay nimble and don’t hesitate to take partial profits on strength, often. From a technical perspective, SPY has room to run to 260 before it encounters a serious resistance.


Check out my latest book: Swing Trading with Options – How to trade big trends for big returns.