MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.
While so many sectors are at or below their 200-day moving average, the Nasdaq Composite is at new all-time highs. AI stocks continue to lead the market. The semiconductor ETF, SMH, gained 4% last week and is now up75% year-to-date. Software stocks are acting constructively – IGV is only up 2.5% YTD and has been choppy, but keeps making higher lows and consolidating in a range between $110 and its 50-day moving average. People are buying even minor dips in tech stocks for multiple reasons – expected growth, enthusiasm about AI, and mainly because it has been the only sector that is trending upwards. Crypto is also consolidating in a tight range near its 3-month highs. There seems to be a lid on it right now – we saw so many upside morning gaps that consistently faded.
The jobs number on Friday came below estimates. The Fed has a dual mandate – full employment and under 2% inflation. Higher-than-expected unemployment reduces the odds of more rate hikes. If crude oil also pulls back, yields will decline, which would ultimately help more stocks to join the rally. It hasn’t been pretty outside of tech.
The three big catalysts that are likely to shape the price action over the next month or so are Anthropic’s IPO, the mid-term elections, and the war in the Middle East. And the next earnings season starts in a couple of weeks.
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