Month: November 2021

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The market has been telegraphing the Covid threat for the past three weeks. The recent acceleration in big tech stocks’ ascent and the decimation of the so-called reopening industries have been clear signs and we often talked about them here. What we saw on Friday was something different. It was a panic. There is a new significant mutation of Covid and we know very little about it yet – is it more transmissible, is it more deadly, how efficient are vaccines against it. When things become clearer, the market will calm down. Until then, we might see more widespread weakness. 

At some point, the smart market participants will realize that there’s still plenty of liquidity in the market and an accommodating Fed. All that money is not going to sit idle on the sidelines. It will rotate somewhere. That somewhere can be vaccine stocks – they have proven to be effective, the same technology can be used to quickly produce a version that will deal with any mutation, and it seems the world might need an annual booster shot for the next couple of years. Or enough people will realize that the virus mutations and lockdowns will accelerate “the work and play from home” trend which will benefit the companies that are building the metaverse – U, RBLX, NVDA, FB, MANA, etc. Or what if Pfizer’s antiviral drug turns out to be very efficient against any of the virus mutations – in this case, all the so-called reopening stocks will have a major rally. In other words, after the panic subsides, money will rotate somewhere and very quickly.

In the meantime, the clean-tech space is holding relatively well. Look at the major EV stocks. Most gained ground last week, even the Chinese ones.

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The market is worrying about Covid again. The lockdown measures in parts of Europe and the rise of new Covid cases are definitely impacting money flows. Look at the price action in the past couple of weeks. Anything related to “the reopening” and “going back to normal” has been under heavy pressure – airlines (JETS), leisure and entertainment (PEJ), oil & gas (XLE). The small-cap ETF -IWM, has been showing relative weakness too. If IWM cannot bounce in the 230-232 area, we can talk about a failed breakout. 

In the meantime, capital has fearlessly been flowing into mega-cap tech stocks which have been among the biggest winners in a “work-from-home world”. AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, and SHOP reached new all-time highs. AMZN and GOOGL are basically there too. FB is acting constructively above its 50-day moving average. In addition, vaccine stocks, MRNA, and BNTX are bouncing after 50%+ correction. 

Semiconductors ETF – SMH, closed at new all-time highs inspired by another strong earnings report from Nvidia. There’s a lot of strength in the sector – NXPI, LRCX, MU, ON are just a few examples.

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Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only and it should not be considered financial advice.

The charts in this video are powered by MarketSmith

Even official inflation readings are at record levels. Interest perked up last week. Most financials consolidated recent gains. XLF is looking primed for a breakout. Metals were on fire. XME has built a big base near its 10-year highs, led by stocks like FCX, X, AA, ALB, LTHM. Even gold and silver are pushing higher. If interest rates continue to rise, financials and metals should outperform.

In the meantime, the tech sector is not showing any worries about inflation. The biggest companies are getting bigger and more dominant – AAPL, AMZN, FB, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, GOOGL, SHOP, AMD. There are also new tech leaders that broke out on strong earnings like ABNB, RBLX, DASH, DOCN, U. In other words, market sentiment is bullish and the slight dips are getting bought.

Cleantech is still a major market theme. Rivian’s IPO stirred speculative juices. If you don’t want the volatility of individual stocks but want to have exposure to this strong trend, PBW is one way to approach it. It’s an ETF that gives you access to electric vehicles, batteries, charging stations, solar, fuel cells, renewable utilities, etc.

Cannabis stocks managed to make a higher low and are now starting to trend higher. MSOS provides good exposure to U.S.-based companies. Some individual players that are currently in play – TLRY, CGC, VFF, GRWG, ACB, etc.

Try my subscription service which includes a private Twitter feed with option and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary and actionable swing, intraday, and position trade ideas, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See some of the recent testimonials.

PERFORMANCE

Here’s a Google spreadsheet tracking all closed options and stock ideas shared on my private Twitter stream and emails for subscribers.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only and it should not be considered financial advice.