Ivanhoff Capital

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

Many say that Presidential elections are irrelevant in the long term. The reality is that they can have a significant impact in the short-term. It is not usually to see a 5% daily move in either direction depending on how the market reacts. By definition, markets are forward-looking and try to discount any major event that could happen in the next six to nine months. Wall Street is convinced that the market has discounted a Republican win. What you should ask yourself is – are we going to see a “buy the rumor, sell the news event” if this actually happens? And what if it doesn’t happen? Obviously, we don’t need to guess. We can make our moves after the elections.

To make things even spicier, the next FOMC meeting is next week. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25bps. Anything different is probably not priced and is likely to lead to a significant reaction. Keep in mind that after the last rate cut in September, rates have gone straight up. For me, this means that another decisive 50bps cut might lead to a reversal in rates. If this happens then small caps, regional banks, biotechs, solar, and housing-related stocks are likely to outperform. I will wait for the market reaction first.

In the meantime, we are still in the midst of earnings season which always brings an extra level of volatility. META, MSFT, and AAPL sold off slightly after their earnings last week. GOOGL gapped up but it gave up its entire gap. AMZN also gapped up near its all-time highs around $200 where it has stalled for now. Closing above 200 can potentially lead to a rally to 220 in November. One of the strongest Mag 7 stocks after earnings this season is TSLA. We saw a significant 2-day rally followed by a 5-day pullback. Let’s see if the earnings gap holds here. It seems the upside gaps in strong stocks have been used to take profits as there hasn’t been much follow-through past the first and second day after earnings.

Try my subscription service which includes a private X feed with option and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary, real-time market education, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See what subscribers say about my educational service.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members. How my ideas/alerts did.

You can find my trading books on Amazon here.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

The future is already here and is already reflected in stock prices. TSLA crushed estimates and mentioned that their goal is to make two million units a year of their driverless taxis. Gapped up and never looked back. Now, it is hovering near its 52-week highs. In the meantime, Google’s self-driving company Waymo is already working in multiple cities and the reviews by people who used it are overwhelmingly positive. GOOGL is also setting up for a potential breakout ahead of its earnings report next week. 

Other notable earnings breakouts from last week include PM, RSM, LRN, VKTX, and CLS. If the general market doesn’t sell off harshly, the dips in these stocks are likely to create great buying opportunities in the next two months or so. 

In the meantime, the volatility in the market is picking up. Rates are perking up. Stanley Druckenmiller said a few weeks ago that one of his biggest positions is short US Treasuries as he believes that deficits and inflation are going to increase under both candidates. If he is right, it’ll be hard for the stock market to sustain its uptrend with rates rising. QQQ just had a false breakdown followed by a false breakout two days apart. This shouldn’t be a big surprise considering the US Presidential elections are ten days away. We have to remain nimble in the next two weeks as volatility and choppiness are here to stay.

Try my subscription service which includes a private X feed with option and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary, real-time market education, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See what subscribers say about my educational service.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members. How my ideas/alerts did.

You can find my trading books on Amazon here.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

We are in a bull market of almost everything. Stocks, US Dollar, Gold, Bitcoin. Even interest rates have been perking up since the last FOMC decision. I don’t know what’s the meaning behind this green wave. All I know is that there are uptrends and we have to find a way to enter with a tight stop and participate. This often means not chasing common breakouts but entering on a pullback near potential support.

The new earnings season has already begun. As usual, banks were the first major group to report. Most banks went higher and held their gains – GS, MS, BAC, WFC, JPM, etc. When was the last time this happened? In the previous few earnings seasons, we saw most banks giving back their gains. 

The most important semiconductor company in the world, TSM also crushed earnings estimates and guided its fourth quarter higher. TSM gapped at new all-time highs where it stalled. 

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) and Netflix (NFLX) also beat earnings estimates and made new all-time highs. NFLX is up 30x since 2010. This is about 28% annual compounded return. ISRG is up 16x for the same time period. Incredible long-term performance even though it came with a lot of volatility and big drawdowns along the way. 

The bottom line is that the major companies that reported, beat earnings estimates and went higher. So far, the only negative reaction has come from ASML, which dropped 15% and put pressure on the entire semiconductor space. They said that the only areas where they see strength in AI chips. Good news for Nvidia. This is why it continues to set up for a potential breakout near its all-time high of around 140. They remain the undisputed market leader. NVDA is up 850% since January 2023. NVDA is also up 166x since 2016. This is about 77% annual compounded return in the past nine years. 

In the meantime, the US Presidential elections are knocking on the door. They typically bring extra volatility with them, before and after the event. I don’t know if it means anything, but gold keeps making new all-time highs and Bitcoin has also begun to rise again.

I recently published a few children’s books. Check them out if you have kids or friends who have kids: Investing for babies, Trading for babies, Meditation for babies. You can find my other trading books on Amazon here.

Try my subscription service which includes a private X feed with option and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary, real-time market education, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See what subscribers say about my educational service.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members. How my ideas/alerts did.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.