Bias Beats Everything

  • Posted by on May 25th, 2016 at 3:02 pm

Every market stat could be a bullish or bearish argument, depending on what you want it to be. Bias beats everything.

Let me help you with some popular examples below:

Bearish

Market breadth is nowhere near all-time highs – this is a momentum divergence. Take profits.

Bullish

Market breadth is nowhere near all-time highs – it still has a lot of room to improve.

Bearish

Market breadth is at all-time high – it is overbought. It has to reverse any time now.

Bullish

Market breadth is at all-time highs – yes, time for a short squeeze. It could remain overbought longer than most people can remain bearish.

The inflation adjusted returns of the S & P 500 for the past 16 years is zero.

Bearish: What a waste of time. Buy gold.

Bullish: Wow, this is amazing. So a diversified portfolio of stocks can really protect the purchasing power of capital.

The S & P 500 is near all-time highs:

Bearish: Yeah, but most stocks are far from all-time highs and most peoples’ portfolios are nowhere even close.

Bullish: This is amazing. It will create so many great trading opportunities as underinvested fund managers are forced back in. There is only one worse thing that being in the market while it is correcting harshly – it is being out of the market while it is rallying. The first won’t get you fired, but the second one most likely will.

Add your argument in the comments section. Better yet, do something productive and add some actionable setups that you are looking at.


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