Ivanhoff Capital

The charts on Momentum Monday are powered by MarketSmith

The year started with a bang and new all-time highs for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 but the enthusiasm was brought down to earth on Friday after the situation in the Middle East has escalated.

A few market developments that stood out last week:

1. We saw a notable inflow in capital into emerging market stocks. The Chinese Internet ETF, KWEB gained more than 6% on Thursday and it managed to keep most of its gains during the pullback on Friday.
2. Crude oil had a big 3% gap which might be the beginning of a new trend, especially if the situation in the East escalates. Gold has also been on the rise.
3. Defense stocks ETF, XAR broke out to new all-time highs.
4. Interest rates are going down which is good news for the our debt-ridden economy.
5. Quite a few enterprise software stocks are setting up for a potential breakout: COUP, TWLO, AYX, etc.

Happy New Year and Thanks for watching/reading.

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The charts on Momentum Monday are powered by MarketSmith

The last decade was all about the cloud and technology. The next decade might look like very similarly to the last. We discussed a few longer-term ideas at the beginning of the show and then dived into trends that are more relevant to now and the next year. One emerging development is the U.S. Dollar weakness which might put the foundation for new momentum leaders. Gold, gold miners, energy, emerging markets underperformed significantly in the past few years and this might be coming to an end.

It is still a bull market out there but:

77 stocks gained more than 50% in the past month. This is an extreme number that is not an exact market timing indicator but it is often a sign of frothiness in the market. Add to that the unusually low put/call ratio and rarely high greed levels and one can make the argument that the indexes might be due for a pullback in the short-term perspective. The gradual uptrend of the past couple of months has created such unreasonably high expectations that even a 3% pullback might feel like a panic selloff to many. With that in mind be aware that:

1. A bull market pullback might happen through sector rotation. For example, while biotech corrects a bit, another sector (like basic materials or retail) might step up and help the major stock indexes like the S & P 500 to remain relatively unscathed.
2. Any pullback will most likely be welcomed as a buying opportunity. This is not really a shorting opportunity for most people. Pullbacks to a rising 20-day EMA are a normal part of any strong trend.

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PERFORMANCE

Here’s a Google spreadsheet tracking all closed option and stock ideas shared on my private Twitter stream and weekly email for subscribers.

The charts on Momentum Monday are powered by MarketSmith

Appetite comes with eating. The greed and risk-on behavior comes with higher prices. We saw another week of epic short squeezes. Tesla (TSLA) has come within 7 points from the proverbial $420 “going-private” level that Elon Musk joked about on Twitter last year. Shopify (SHOP) is back near its all-time highs after a 30% drawdown and a test of its 200-day moving average just a month ago. Analysts waited for Nvidia (NVDA) to go up 15% in two weeks to start upgrading it confirming the popular Wall Street saying that “you don’t need analysts in a bull market and you don’t want them in a bear market”. Even Netflix (NFLX) had a big rally and it gained 10% in a week. It is now above its 200-day moving average and back near potential resistance.

The one thing many forget about bull markets is that not all stocks go up at the same time and there are constant sector rotation. Individual stocks can easily have a 30% drawdown in a bull market while the indexes remain in a range and go up. Be  careful what you chase and if you do it, have an exit strategy.

Try my new subscription service which includes a private Twitter feed with real-time option and stock ideas, weekly newsletter with concise market commentary and actionable swing and position trade ideas, the Momentum 50 list of market leader and much more.

PERFORMANCE

Here’s a Google spreadsheet tracking all closed option and stock ideas shared on my private Twitter stream and weekly email for subscribers.