Ivanhoff Capital

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The S&P 500 is consolidating in a tight range near its all-time highs. The Nasdaq 100 is not too far behind. The small-cap index, Russell 2000 is back above its 50-day moving average. In other words, the market is hitting on all cylinders. For the most part, everything is rising. This is a notable change of pace compared to the last two months which were characterized by frequent sector rotations – when basic material and financial stocks went up, tech suffered, and vice versa. The one thing that has remained the same is the short-term nature of most moves. We continue to see a lot of intraday fading. It seems institutions are still not interested in chasing breakouts but they eagerly scoop up pullbacks. 

The most shorted stocks were the big gainers of in the past week or so. The so-called meme stocks that went crazy in late January, had a second round. Some of them even exceeded their January levels. AMC, for example, went from $10 to $35 in two weeks. All other meme runners were also on fire – GME, DDD, SPCE, FUBO, etc. 

The U.S. Dollar’s weakness is reincarnating interest in emerging market stocks. Brazil and other Latin American ETFs had major breakouts last week. Quite a few Chinese tech, biotech, and financial stocks are perking up and setting up. There’s notable strength in other areas of the market as well – industrial metals, gold, silver, oil, semis, medical devices, cannabis, even some software stocks are trying to push higher.

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The main stock indexes – S&P 500, Nasdaq 1000, Russell 2k finished last week where they started. In between, they had a hiccup and several mini sector rotations. 

Many of the best-performing stocks from 2020 have been major laggards in 2021 – solar, EVs, SPACs, software, etc. Those same 2021 laggards finally woke up last week and started to perk up. The most shorted stocks shone the brightest which is a sign of returning risk appetite. Curiously, it coincided with a rout in the crypto space. It’ll be interesting to see if this development will continue. In the meantime, many of the leaders of 2021 – homebuilders, metals (copper, steel, aluminum, gold, silver, etc.), retailers, financial, oil stocks pulled back, mostly to their rising 20 and 50-day moving averages.

To conclude, last week was a mean-reversion week and the choppy range-bound action is still dominating. One positive development is the emerging markets in several growth stocks like RBLX, UPST, PATH. The list is not long but at least it is not non-existent. The tech sector has stabilized and we are starting to see some positive consolidations in the space – FB, GOOGL, AMAT, ASML, NVDA, etc.

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Here’s a Google spreadsheet tracking all closed options and stock ideas shared on my private Twitter stream and emails for subscribers.

Check out my free weekly email. to get an idea of the content I share with members.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only and it should not be considered financial advice.

The charts in this video are powered by MarketSmith

CDC announced new guidelines last Thursday. Fully vaccinated people don’t have to wear masks outside or inside and can basically go back to their life before the pandemic. This woke the so-called back-to-normal stocks up. Retailers ETF was up 4% on Friday. Airlines, cruise lines, hotels, car rentals, entertainment stocks were on fire. So were oil stocks, which are at the intersection of back to normal and rising inflation expectations. How long is this theme going to last? It could be a few days or a few weeks. A lot has already been priced in but even the most optimistic among us didn’t believe that we can go back to normal so soon. This is why I think this theme has room to run and anything related to travel and leisure is likely to outperform in the near-term. 

In the meantime, SPY tested its 50-day moving average and as it usually happens, the first test led to a quick bounce. QQQ and IWM are still lagging. Both are still below their 20 and 50dma. There’s a good chance of more choppiness ahead. All we can do is focus on setups and find themes that are currently in favor.

Try my subscription service which includes a private Twitter feed with option and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary and actionable swing, intraday, and position trade ideas, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See some of the recent testimonials.

PERFORMANCE

Here’s a Google spreadsheet tracking all closed options and stock ideas shared on my private Twitter stream and emails for subscribers.

Check out my free weekly email. to get an idea of the content I share with members.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only and it should not be considered financial advice.