Momentum Monday – The Bears Are Still In Charge

The charts on Momentum Monday are powered by MarketSmith

The month of May wasn’t kind to equities. No matter how you slice it, the market doesn’t like protectionist policies and it is likely to keep going lower until all the tariff insanity is put to rest.

SPY closed below its 200-day moving average. The next level of potential support is near 270. The 200dma and 280 are now levels of potential resistance.

The small-cap index, IWM continues to show relative weakness. If it loses 145, it is likely to drop to 140 before dip buyers and short coverers step up. The most dangerous condition in the market is when an index is oversold near an area of potential support and it doesn’t bounce from there. This is a recipe for panic selling.

P.S. Check out my last two trading books. Both are super practical, packed with actionable information that can be put to use right away:

Swing Trading with options – How to Trade Big Trends for Big Profits

Top 10 Trading Setups – How to find them, hot to trade them, hot to make money with them.

How we use options here

There are many ways to use options but for now, we focus on simple calls and puts and we are buyers of premium.

For short-term swing trades, we use slightly-out-of-the-money options (delta 50-30) with 2 to 9 days until expiration. For example, if I like a long setup in a stock trading near 180, I might buy this or next week’s 182.50 or $185 or $190 calls depending on how much leverage I want.

For position trades that are longer-term in their nature, we use out-of-the-money options (delta 40-20) with one to three months until expiration. For example, if I like a position setup in stock trading near $80, I might buy a few $85 or $90 or even $100 call options that expire 4 to 12 weeks from now.

We use calls or puts for select swing and position trades that can last anywhere from a few days to a few weeks. The goal is to capture a sizable move that is multiple times bigger than our initial risk. If you don’t feel comfortable with options yet, you can use the underlying stock for any of the options ideas mentioned here.

Options are risky and they are not for everyone’s portfolio. The number one rule with all options ideas I share here is that we assume that we risk the entire premium. Stop losses don’t work with many options because the market is often not liquid enough. This means that the main way to manage risk is via position sizing and proper timing.

Let’s assume you work with a 100k and you risk 1% of your capital per option idea.

1% of 100k is 1k. If the option you want to buy is worth 2.00, you can afford up to 5 contracts.

As a general rule of thumb, it makes sense to sell 1/2 our your contracts when you are up 100% on your options trade and let the rest ride either until our target is reached, they pull back to break-even, or they are about to expire.

Example: We buy five call options at $2 and a target of 8. Our risk is the entire premium.

If the calls go to $4, you can sell two of them. Then, raise your stop top break-even, which in this case is $2 and let the rest ride until our target in the underlying stock is reached or until it approaches its expiration date.

Important Guidelines for following options alerts from @IvanhoffTrades

  1. DON’T use market orders for entering options to avoid slippage. It’s better (safer) to use a limit order that is above the market order. If the ask is .50, you can send a bid for 0.55 for example.
  2. Consider different strike prices and expiration dates for any of my option ideas if they move quickly above the suggested entry range. For example, if I send an alert to buy TWTR May 22, $30 Calls with a buy range 0f up to 0.50, you can look at May 29, $31 Calls.
  3. I like to take partial profits when an option goes in my favor – for example, I might sell 1/3 of my contracts when they are up 2x from my entry, another 1/3 there they are up 2.5x or 3x, etc.

For some decent introduction to options, you can read my book: Swing Trading with Options.

Momentum Monday – Surviving the choppy market

The charts on Momentum Monday are powered by MarketSmith

The number of distribution days in the major stock indexes is growing up. Last week, we saw the small-cap index testing the technically important level near 150 and surviving. SPY tested 280 again is it didn’t break. The more frequently one level is tested the weaker it becomes; therefore, a break becomes more likely.

If SPY loses 280, the odds are that it will quickly test its 200-day moving averages near 277 before it attempts a bounce.

While it is true that we continue to see relative strength in a decent number of software and biotech stocks, the current momentum is on the bearish side. We are seeing more negative reactions to earnings. There are more and more sectors breaking down and therefore, the market breadth is worsening.

P.S. Check out my last two trading books. Both are super practical, packed with actionable information that can be put to use right away:

Swing Trading with options – How to Trade Big Trends for Big Profits

Top 10 Trading Setups – How to find them, hot to trade them, hot to make money with them.