The Bull Is Still Strong

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There are still plenty of opportunities in this market. Bitcoin hit new all-time highs. The 2x leveraged Bitcoin ETF, BITX, gained 25% in a few days. I participated in this move but missed on the much bigger moves in Ethereum and XRP. ETHU and XXRP went up more than 100% in a couple of weeks.

China has also awakened from its slumber. BABA JUL18 $110 Calls went from 1 to 12 inside a week, and we participated in part of the move.

The opportunities are everywhere: electric helicopters: JOBY, ACHR; drones: RCAT, KTOS, RDW; airspace: ASTS, RKLB; rare earth metals: MP, USAR; brokerages: HOOD, IBKR, BULL, FUTU, TIGR; uranium: LEU, OKLO, SMR; software: PLTR, TWLO, SOUN, AEVA; quantum computing: QBTS, RGTI; e-commerce: SHOP, SE; robotics: SERV, SYM, PDYN; crypto-related stocks: COIN, APLD, CRCL; batteries for electric vehicles: ENVX, QS; energy: NEXT, METC, SOC, etc.

There are certainly some elements of frothiness in the current market, but the bull remains strong. Many of the high-momentum flyers are likely to pull back in the next few weeks, but others will pop up and take their place. Bull markets correct through sector rotation.

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Disclaim

Stock Picker’s Market

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The Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500, Bitcoin, and Nvidia reached new all-time highs last week. 

Bitcoin has been setting up near its all-time highs for multiple weeks. It finally broke out. I participated with a position in BITX, which I bought in anticipation of the breakout. Other major cryptocurrencies have also been coiling up ahead of the so-called “crypto week” in Congress. Are we going to see another “buy the rumor, sell the news” event, or FOMO will take over? I am prepared for either.

In the meantime, we have seen some distribution occurring in quite a few momentum stocks. We are seeing more fake breakouts that lead to immediate reversals, as well as more fake breakdowns that lead to quick recoveries. Overall, there’s an increasing number of leaders in a pullback mode. This might be part of the usual sector rotation we see during bull markets. The protectionist and on-shoring policies have been bullish for US steel, copper, aluminium, rare earth metals, drones, and energy companies. The market is still acting as if the new tariffs are a temporary bluff to get a better trade deal, but what if the market is wrong? After all, tariffs were the reason behind the 26% correction in the Nasdaq 100 earlier in the year. We will pass that bridge when we get there. The price action hasn’t given us any reason to turn strategically bearish yet. It is still a buy-the-dip in the strong themes environment. 

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Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only, and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.

The Bull Market Is Expanding

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Bull markets correct through sector rotations. We saw it last week. On July 1st, most momentum leaders sold off. The capital didn’t leave the stock market. It just rotated into other groups that have been lagging year-to-date – small caps, biotech, homebuilders, retailers, finance, etc. Such rotations are a normal part of the cycle. They are a sign that the bull market is expanding and encompassing more names. The wave is starting to lift more boats. There is more to choose from.

The next earnings season is a few weeks away, so the market is currently focused on the impact of the One Beautiful Bill and the trade deals with countries around the world. Vietnam agreed to pay 20% tariffs and 40% on transatlantic shipping. We are not going to discuss the longer-term consequences for the US consumer and companies, but focus on the immediate market reaction for now. The stocks of the companies that manufacture in Vietnam went higher – NKE, LULU, FSLR, BA, AAPL, etc. The Vietnam stock market made new 52-week highs. I suspect we will see a similar reaction to other deals – China, the EU, India, Latin America, Japan, etc.

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Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only, and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.