Author: Ivanhoff

The charts in this video are powered by MarketSmith

The Fed is saying that it doesn’t worry about inflation this year. The market has a different opinion. Long-term rates have been rising, pressuring most tech stocks, SPACs, and recent IPOs which went public at elevated valuations. In the meantime, the NFT and crypto space is flourishing. People are spending crazy money on digital art, farts, virtual houses, tweets, collectibles, you name it. A sign of froth and a side effect of too much money in the system some would say. Or maybe it is just the early innings of a new Internet. Only time will tell. The whole mania has been spilled over public markets. Any stocks related to NFT have gone up 2-5x in the past couple of weeks: TKAT, OCG, ZKIN, JFIN, YVR, HOFV, IMTE, etc. Even FB and ETSY seem to be rising based on it. Quite a few blockchain and crypto-related stocks are still setting up – MSTR, SOS, MARA, RIOT, etc.

Watch the 310 level in the QQQ next week. If it is lost, we will see a considerable number of former momentum leaders breaking down from their bearish flags.  

If QQQ somehow manages to retake its 50-day moving average and then clears 325, we are back to a FOMO market. I am already seeing some clean energy stocks tightening up which can be a good foundation for a rally.

Basically, the market is in a consolidation mode. It has been choppy and indecisive lately which has required traders to be nimble.

Try my subscription service which includes a private Twitter feed with option and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary and actionable swing, intraday, and position trade ideas, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See some of the recent testimonials.

PERFORMANCE

Here’s a Google spreadsheet tracking all closed options and stock ideas shared on my private Twitter stream and emails for subscribers.

Check out my free weekly email. to get an idea of the content I share with members.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only and it should not be considered financial advice.


The charts in this video are powered by MarketSmith

The same trends persist. Interest rates are going higher which is putting downside pressure on richly-valued tech stocks. The so-called old-economy stocks continue to rise.

The market continues to relentlessly price in going back to normal at some point this year. Anything related to leisure has been on absolute fire – hotels (MAR, HTHT, ABNB), airlines (DAL, UAL, UAL, etc.), travel agencies (BKNG, EXPE, TRIP), entertainment (VIAC, DISCA), restaurants (RUTH, CHEF, CAKE), retailers (JWN, M), etc. The market always over-discounts potential threats and opportunities, so industry moves often go a lot further than most think is reasonable. Rational expectations account only for the first 30% of a typical move. Everything after that is pure momentum speculation, a short squeeze, and FOMO. 

Maybe it’s the new round of stimulus that is spurring the speculative spirit or the fear of inflation, but many cryptocurrencies are hitting new highs this weekend. The blockchain-related stocks started to break out last week and many of them are looking constructively for higher prices – BTBT, BLOK, RIOT, MARA, NCTY, MSTR,  etc.

Try my subscription service which includes a private Twitter feed with option and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary and actionable swing, intraday, and position trade ideas, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See some of the recent testimonials.

PERFORMANCE

Here’s a Google spreadsheet tracking all closed options and stock ideas shared on my private Twitter stream and emails for subscribers.

Check out my free weekly email. to get an idea of the content I share with members.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only and it should not be considered financial advice.


The charts in this video are powered by MarketSmith

The leaders of 2020 – SPACs, software, clean energy, cannabis, biotech stocks have been under heavy pressure for the past few weeks. Many have already experienced 20-50% correction this year. At some point on Friday, the biotech ETF – XBI was down 27% from its 52-week highs. In other words, part of the market has just experienced a pretty significant pullback which might be enough to reset the bases or we just have a new crop of leaders that no one is used to yet.

In the meantime, oil and financial stocks have had their best 4-week stretch in awhile. In fact, they are the reason why the S&P 500 is less than 3% below its all-time highs while the Nasdaq 100 has had a 10% pullback. Energy and financials have underperformed for so many years that few could believe that so many of them were hitting new 52-week highs during the week while the rest of the market was diving. Some say that the market is simply pricing in a quick economic recovery and rising interest rates are benefiting old-economy stocks while hurting new-economy stocks which have been trading at crazy high valuations. I don’t know if this narrative is just a temporary rotation or it’ll stick longer but we can’t ignore price action. I find it hard to believe that any rally can be sustained without the participation of growth stocks but the current facts are that basic material and financial stocks might be the new momentum leaders. I can’t believe I am even thinking that but once in a while there are big narrative changes in the market and we have to be open-minded for the possibilities. 

I don’t know if Friday was a near-term bottom but so many stocks had major reversal candles that are a good foundation for at least 1-2 day bounce.

Try my subscription service which includes a private Twitter feed with option and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary and actionable swing, intraday, and position trade ideas, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See some of the recent testimonials.

PERFORMANCE

Here’s a Google spreadsheet tracking all closed options and stock ideas shared on my private Twitter stream and emails for subscribers.

Check out my free weekly email. to get an idea of the content I share with members.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only and it should not be considered financial advice.