Author: Ivanhoff

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What really happened last week from a big picture perspective – anything high-growth and cyclical that had shown even remote relative strength finally caved in – the mega caps QQQ, semiconductors SMH, homebuilders XHB, financials XLF. It might seem dramatic to talk about a market correction with the S&P500 so close to its all-time highs and still above its 50-day moving average but there has been some serious damage under the surface. Many of last year’s momentum leaders are down 40-50% from their highs. There is a new group of stocks getting hit every week while the most-oversold sectors are having big 1-2-day short-covering rallies. All of this has created extreme volatility and choppiness which require all traders to be extra nimble or just step aside a wait it out.

The Fed wants to accelerate tapering and plans to raise interest rates three times next year in order to fight inflation. Initially, the market read this as complacency and underreaction. All stocks had a major rally on Wednesday afternoon. Most were given back on the following day. Friday was a quadruple option expirations day and we had some major mean reversions. The worst-hit groups in the past few weeks had a sizable bounce – biotech and high-growth, high-multiples software stocks. In the meantime, financials, homebuilders, mega-caps, and semis showed relative weakness. At least this market is not boring and riddled with high correlations. 

SPY, QQQ, and SMH are now looking vulnerable to further downside if they lose their lows from Friday. The odds are that we will see more choppiness next week.

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The charts in this video are powered by MarketSmith

The large caps are holding above their big gap from last Tuesday and acting relatively constructively. Both QQQ and SPY have consolidated near a potential pivot. Going above last week’s highs would be a buying signal. I would not trust those potential breakouts for anything more than a quick scalp because there is simply too much weakness among individual stocks.

In the meantime, the divergences continue. While defensive sectors like consumer staples (XLP), healthcare (XLV), and some semiconductors are perking up, small caps and many software/internet stocks are under pressure. The recipe to surviving in this tape (meaning limiting drawdowns and if possible, growing our accounts) is to trade smaller and be selectively active, only focus on the best setups, and be willing to play both sides of the market. 

Try my subscription service which includes a private Twitter feed with option and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary and actionable swing, intraday, and position trade ideas, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See some of the recent testimonials.

PERFORMANCE

Here’s a Google spreadsheet tracking all closed options and stock ideas shared on my private Twitter stream and emails for subscribers.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only and it should not be considered financial advice.

The charts in this video are powered by MarketSmith

The Fed has changed its interpretation of inflation and this is wreaking havoc in the high-growth, high-momentum world and a scare in the rest of the stock market. The vast majority of momentum names that tripled and quadrupled last year are in the midst of 30%+ drawdowns. The small-caps index Russell 2k is near the bottom of its range since February while adding multiple distribution days just in the past couple of weeks. The large-caps S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 managed to close the week barely above their 50-day moving average but are also looking vulnerable to further downside especially if they lose their Friday’s lows. The main indexes are in a correction mode. The most common-sense strategy for active market participants in this market environment is to either focus on intraday setups or sit on the sidelines with a large cash position. There are still plenty of opportunities for the nimble. In fact, corrective markets are active traders’ paradise because of the elevated volatility. Granted intraday trading is not for everyone and there is nothing wrong in taking the occasional mental break from the market and coming back recharged and ready to ride the next market rally aggressively. 

In the meantime, there are more Covid-related restrictions around the world as the Omicron mutation is spreading quickly. We still don’t know enough about its death rate and the current vaccines’ protection rate against it. It seems at this point the market is more worried about Fed’s tightening policy than the virus. The narrative has changed. Covid used to be favorable for tech stocks because it meant more liquidity from the Fed. Lately, a new Covid threat means that the Fed will worry about inflation due to supply chain issues. This is why the same playbook from last year is not working now.

Try my subscription service which includes a private Twitter feed with option and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary and actionable swing, intraday, and position trade ideas, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See some of the recent testimonials.

PERFORMANCE

Here’s a Google spreadsheet tracking all closed options and stock ideas shared on my private Twitter stream and emails for subscribers.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only and it should not be considered financial advice.