Author: Ivanhoff

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

The range-bound choppy tape remains in full force. SPY rallied to its 20dma where it found resistance and it pulled back to its 50dma where it found support. SPY is market cap weighted. Ten stocks account for almost 40% of SPY. Those ten megacaps have been among the best performers year-to-date and in the past three years. This explains the significant divergence between SPY and the equal-weighted S&P 500 – RSP. Get this – while SPY is up 25% YTD, RSP is up 12%. A few megacaps are keeping the indexes afloat while there’s selling under the surface. What’s new would say some. This has been the case for a long time and it hasn’t mattered. True. I can’t argue against that. Maybe that divergence doesn’t matter and the bullish trend will continue. Maybe, it’ll lead to a market correction. Either way, we will adjust to what the market offers and position accordingly. 

In the meantime, crypto-related stocks and ETFs have been under some pressure lately. Crypto has been the undisputed leader since the elections but it is starting to lose its luster. COIN, MSTR, WMGI, Solana, and Ethereum are now below their VWAP since the elections. This means that the average buyer since the elections is now underwater. Only Bitcoin has managed to hold above its VWAP since the election but barely – this level has been tested multiple times in the past couple of weeks and might break at some point. TSLA is also starting to crack and amass distribution days. NVDA has notably been underperforming in the fourth quarter. The leaders are giving ground back. 

Quantum computing is one of the few spots that has remained predominantly bullish, but even there, we are seeing some signs of exhaustion. In other words, the market might need some break to build new setups. This break could come in the form of a range-bound choppy environment or a 5-15% correction.

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Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

Volatility tends to spike at turning points. Was last week one or was it just another shakeout in a bull market? After all, the Nasdaq 100 just tested its 50-day moving average and bounced, making a higher low. We can talk about the possibility of a more serious correction if QQQ quickly goes below its 50dma and start trading there.

The Fed cut rates by 25bps and yet rates went up again reflecting the market’s expectations for higher inflation and a more hawkish Fed in 2025. Algos panicked and the stock indexes had their biggest one-day selloff since 2022. We saw a bounce attempt on Friday, so now the question is if this will be just another quick V-shaped recovery or the beginning of a deeper pullback. Is this buy the dip or short the rip market? We will know soon enough. What we know so far is that market breadth has been deteriorating for the past few weeks. Momentum leaders have been under pressure as well. Look at the price action in anything crypto-related, TSLA, quantum computing, or semis. The best swing trade opportunities come right after a market correction so even if we get one, there will be much better opportunities down the road.

Try my subscription service which includes a private X feed with option and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary, real-time market education, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See what subscribers say about my educational service.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members. How my ideas/alerts did.

You can find my trading books on Amazon here.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

SPY and QQQ are getting all the headlines with closing at or near all-time highs, but the price action under the surface has been deteriorating. Micro, small, and mid-cap have been under pressure lately. Most high-momentum stocks (the ones that are up the most year to date) also had a sizable haircut last week. Maybe the reason is the rise in interest rates or people are taking profits but we are back to a market held by a few mega-cap stocks.

The big news came from Google last week. They announced a major breakthrough in quantum computing and the stock broke out new new all-time highs. Quantum computing stocks have been on fire in the last few months – IONQ, RGTI, QUBT, etc. Google reminded us that they are a major player in almost any cutting-edge industry nowadays – from AI to self-driving. What many missed to point out is that Google used Nvidia CUDA Q platform. 

Yes, Nvidia is at the center of everything but it has been acting as a source of funds lately. It could not rally even on a strong earnings report from Broadcom (AVGO). Maybe it needs a proper shakeout to 120 before it tries to rise again. 

In the meantime, crypto is in its own world. Bitcoin and Ethereum are near all-time highs. Every day we hear about a different company announcing a strategic reserve in Bitcoin. We will likely see many more of these announcements. This should not make you complacent. Nothing is fully immune against rug pulls and risk-off selloffs. The good news is that portfolio protection is currently cheap.

Try my subscription service which includes a private X feed with option and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary, real-time market education, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See what subscribers say about my educational service.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members. How my ideas/alerts did.

You can find my trading books on Amazon here.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.