Author: Ivanhoff

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

Bull markets climb a wall of worry. This one hasn’t been any different. The market has been extremely resilient in the face of numerous bad news. Inflation is hotter than expected, yet the S&P 500 is at all-time highs. Most tech mega-caps sold off after earnings, yet the Nasdaq 100 is near all-time highs. Trade wars are accelerating, yet China, Brazil, and Germany markets are up 15% year-to-date.

Rates and the US Dollar are pulling back proving a solid tailwind for most stocks. The speculation is in full force. HOOD has more than doubled since the elections last year. It made another new 52-week high after crushing earnings estimates last week. Given the acceleration in their growth, I wouldn’t be surprised if it tags 80 at some point this year. Other brokerages have also been in a steep uptrend – IBKR and FUTU. TIGR might be the next one to join them. COIN has been stuck in a range as it is more dependent on the price action in Bitcoin. If BTCUSD goes above 100k, we will probably see COIN and MSTR catch up. DKNG is another stock that allows people to speculate. It had a big-volume breakout on earnings last week.

Speculation is running rampant but this time it is not concentrated in a select group of big tech stocks. It’s a true market of stocks with new leaders.

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MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

It’s a miracle that the large-cap indexes are still near their all-time highs considering the bearish earnings reaction to most of Big Tech reports this quarter. Only META went up. AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA, AAPL, and MSFT sold off. NVDA hasn’t reported yet but it dived for a different reason.

Up until a few months ago, the complaint was that the market is driven by just a handful of big tech stocks and everything else is in the doldrums. Now we have the opposite situation. Everyone is overweight in Big Tech, which is underperforming so far this year. Most of the big gains are happening elsewhere – PLTR, HOOD, OKLO, TEM, GDXU, HIMS, NET, LEU, KC, DOCS, NET, SERV, SPOT, etc.

Remember that there are no safe stocks in a bear market, regardless of their prospects and current fundamentals. The stocks of the best companies in the world could correct 50% in a prolonged correction. 2022 is a good recent example. Luckily we are supposedly still in a bull market; a market of stocks environment where one has to be tactical and pick carefully our entries and exits. This is not a tape for the complacent though. If you forget to manage risk, trade too big, and don’t take your stops, you can experience a significant drawdown. Drawdowns come and go but the trick is to keep them small so we can compound our capital at a faster pace over time.

Try my subscription service which includes a private X feed with option and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary, real-time market education, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See what subscribers say about my educational service.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members. How my ideas/alerts did.

You can find my trading books on Amazon here.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

The news about the Chinese AI app. Deepseek sank the market last Monday. All AI-related stocks were the year-to-date best-performing group before that. On Monday, most gapped down around 15%. The premise was that if a Chinese company could build the same quality AI app with access to older, less powerful chips for a lot less money, then the entire AI theme needed to be repriced. As the week progressed, it became clear that Deepseek had access to Nvidia chips and that the real cost behind that app might have been billions of dollars. Last week’s volatility made two things crystal clear:

1. The AI war is just starting, and companies will have to invest even more heavily to get an edge. I wouldn’t be surprised if the dip in semiconductors becomes a buying opportunity after proper new bases are built.
2. The ban on smart chip export to China has not worked well. Chinese companies have access to the same technology. Will the US government intervene in some way and try to change that? Is it even possible to do that? After all, all chips are manufactured in Taiwan. Either way, this is a tall wall for Nvidia to climb. The potential headline risks have turned NVDA into a hot swing and intraday trading vehicle; not a longer-term hold for many.

In the meantime, we are still in the midst of earnings season. The price action in Big Tech has been bizarre. AAPL and TSLA missed on some elements and still had a sizable upside gap the next morning. Then that gap completely faded. META was already running ahead of their earnings, so the reaction to their big beat was muted. GOOGL and AMZN might be similar to META next week. MSFT was the one that was hit the worst and it is barely hanging near its YTD lows.

QQQ had fully recovered from the Deepseek gap by the end of the week when another hammer hit the market. Trump wants to tariff Canada and Mexico and is not bluffing about it. They account for 30% of the US foreign trade. Many US companies manufacture in those countries. It is a big deal for everyone’s bottom line and spending. The tariff war might cause a lot more harm to US stocks than the Chinese AI threat. QQQ is still above its 50dma and its YTD VWAP. It is still trading in a choppy range. If it goes back below 516-515, it could test its YTD lows near 500.

Try my subscription service which includes a private X feed with option and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary, real-time market education, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See what subscribers say about my educational service.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members. How my ideas/alerts did.

You can find my trading books on Amazon here.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.