Author: Ivanhoff

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

The indexes have been chopping in a range ever since the last FOMC meeting – a few up days followed by a few down days and then a repeat of the same almost every week. SPY and QQQ have been making lower highs but now they are back above their 50dma. The silver lining is there have been a decent number of strong stocks pushing higher while the indexes have been chopping around. 

The new earnings season has just begun. Financials beat estimates and went higher for the most part – GS, JPM, WFC. 

TSM raised guidance and it lifted the entire semiconductor space. MRVL and AVGO are setting up near their all-time highs. If NVDA clears 140, it could test 150-155 again. ARM is also setting up for a potential breakout. Smaller semis like CRDO and SMTC have been on fire and leading the pack.

Crypto has been perking up in anticipation of Trump’s inauguration. HOOD, MSTR, and COIN were among the top gainers last week. Crypto miners also had a major bounce. There might be a buy the rumor sell the news even next week.

Big mega-caps have been a mixed bag. AAPL has been extremely weak in the past few weeks as they are having tougher competition in China and higher tariffs could impact them. AAPL might be heading for a test of its 200dma near 220. TSLA had a big bounce. Its 50dma around 375 is a new line in the sand. As long as it holds above it, it is a buy-the-dips stock. META has been choppy as it is not clear what happens with TikTok. It is still consolidating near its all-time highs.  AMZN is setting up for a test of 230.  GOOGL is setting up for a test of 200.

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MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

Rates are rising. The 10-year yield is not far from making a new multi-year high and reaching 5%. The market expectations for more rate cuts this year have significantly slumped. This is not a bullish backdrop for most stocks.

SPY, QQQ, and IWM made new YTD lows. Small caps IWM have already given back their post-election gains, and SPY is not far from closing its election gap. SPY and QQQ made a lower high last week and are now hanging on a thin thread. 

There aren’t many financial assets that have remained above their VWAP (volume-weighted average price) since the elections. TSLA, Bitcoin, META, and GOOGL are still among them. TSLA and Bitcoin tested multiple times their VWAP since the elections. The more times one level is tested, the weaker it becomes. META finished green on Friday in an ocean of red. META would be among the big winners if TikTok really closes its business in the US. 

One of the strongest groups in the New Year has been utilities. AI and quantum computing need vast amounts of energy, so it only makes sense that utilities like CEG, VST, GEV, TLN, and NRG are among the current momentum leaders.

Try my subscription service which includes a private X feed with option and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary, real-time market education, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See what subscribers say about my educational service.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members. How my ideas/alerts did.

You can find my trading books on Amazon here.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.

MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.

The indexes might struggle to get a proper bounce, but the new year began strong for a decent number of momentum stocks. If the thesis that the price action in momentum stocks precedes the price action in the general market is true, then we may see a more sustainable bounce around the corner. 

The market is excited about the new year’s possibilities, and so many of the themes that shined in 2024 are currently outperforming – AI, quantum computing, crypto, robotics, drones, and air taxis.

NVDA is still the leader. It finally broke above its 50dma above 140, and it might be heading for a test of 150. Other AI-related stocks are also standing out. MRVL and AVGO allow other companies to create their own AI chips. VRT provides the cooling technology needed for data centers, and VST, CEG, and GEV provide the energy needed to power data centers. 

Bitcoin has kept finding support near the VWAP since the elections. It had another bounce at the start of the new year, which brought enthusiasm to the rest of the crypto space – Solana, Ethereum, etc. The crypto plays in the stock market also bounced – COIN, MSTR, HOOD, MARA.

GOOGL made a higher low above its 20dma. It might be setting up for another leg higher towards 200-220. Google is a leader in all hot themes right now – AI, self-driving, robotics, quantum computing, etc.

As expected, Tesla missed Q4 deliveries estimates. It pulled back to the VWAP since the elections around 375 where it found support. TSLA is a meme stock in a way, so dips are a buying opportunity until it closes below 375.

Try my subscription service which includes a private X feed with option and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary, real-time market education, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See what subscribers say about my educational service.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members. How my ideas/alerts did.

You can find my trading books on Amazon here.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only and it should not be considered financial advice. Read my full disclaimer here.