MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.
The Israel/Iran war escalated and shook out the market’s confidence. Crude oil had a big spike alongside volatility while most stocks pulled back. The focus switched from tariffs to war and the price of oil.
Inflation keeps coming below estimates, which would have been a good reason for the Fed to reconsider its interest rates policy. After the escalation in the Middle East, the Fed will probably keep waiting for more data. Look at the best-performing groups on Friday – obviously anything related to gold, defense, and crude oil spiked, but also all fertilizer and farm product stocks had a strong day. This feeds into expectations for higher food prices. The Fed won’t do or say anything new at this coming meeting.
The most intriguing development last week was the price action in US Treasuries. Unlike any other global conflict in the past 50 years, this one didn’t lead to a rally in UST. This is a major change in sentiment. UST might not be the go-to safe asset for everyone anymore.
In the meantime, the dips in market leaders are still getting bought. Maybe the conflict in the Middle East will cause deeper and scarier pullbacks, but they are likely to get bought at some point.
After a quick shakeout, PLTR is back near its all-time highs.
CRCL keeps making headlines after its recent IPO. The news about Amazon and Walmart looking into getting their own stablecoin to cut billions in transaction fees is stimulating people’s imagination about Circle’s USDC potential. This is why Visa and Mastercard took a hit last week.
I’d watch TSLA next week. If it goes back above 335, it can reestablish its upside momentum. It is not about the anticipated Robotaxy. Higher crude oil prices are actually positive for electric vehicles and solar companies as well.
Rare earth stocks might also be in play. The US government wants to reduce its dependence on China, which means investing heavily in companies like MP.
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