MarketSurge powers the charts in this video.
What a difference a week can make. The first week of September brought a brutal selloff across the board. In the second week, we saw a massive recovery. This reminds me of how January started. The big pullback in semis in the first week was followed by multiple weeks of a strong rally. The odds are low that we will see a repeat of that but we have to remain open-minded to the possibility.
The next FOMC meeting is this Wednesday. There will be a rate cut. The only question is 25 or 50bps. It seems the market expects a 50bps cut and might get disappointed if it doesn’t get it. There’s no reason to be short until we see stocks and the indexes closing below the previous day’s lows.
Last week, we saw a wave that lifted all boats. Not only interest-sensitive stocks like homebuilders and biotech rallied but also tech and many other sectors. It has been a high-correlation market. Correlations are typically high during corrections and the first stage of a recovery. SPY is within 1% of its all-time highs so it is not rational to talk about a correction here.
The biotech ETF, XBI made another higher low and it continues to work on the right side of a big base. It is setting up for a potential breakout near 103. We are already seeing multiple individual biotech stocks break out and run. Individual stocks tend to lead the ETFs and the indexes.
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