Author: Ivanhoff

MarketSmith powers the charts in this video

It seems the market is worrying about something different every week. Three weeks ago was about high inflation. Then after the lower-than-expected CPI print, about missing out on a potential rally. Last week, it seems the new worry was about the implications of a potential recession in 2023. We went from “bad news for the economy is good news for the stock market mantra” because it means the Fed might pivot earlier to “recession might not be fully priced in the stock market yet”. None of these things are relevant if you are a short-term trader.

Large caps QQQ and SPY tested their 10-day EMA and bounced. Small caps IWM tested their 20dEMA and bounced. It is normal to see some form of consolidation after the post-CPI ramp. The pullback in the past week has helped many stocks to form setups with better risk/reward entries. I see some intriguing setups in biotech and energy. That’s what matters. We don’t know if those setups are going to work but at least they exist. Most breakout attempts didn’t work last week, probably because of the general market weakness. Buying pullbacks have worked a lot better lately.

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MarketSmith powers the charts in this video

Financial markets strive to live in the future and anticipate events that haven’t happened yet. Last Thursday, the consumer inflation data came at the still-high 7.7% level but it was a little bit below mainstream estimates. This was enough to spark a rally of epic proportions, just like the one we saw in early summer. The rally that started in late June lasted until mid-August and brought some significant opportunities, especially among the most shorted names at the time. Are we currently experiencing something similar? After all, stocks tend to do well post-midterm elections. The market is betting again that the Fed will slow its rate increases. It is currently pricing a 50bps rate increase in December, not a 75bps. Will the market end up being wrong again in mid-December? Maybe, but there’s a long time until then and we can enjoy a rising market. 

Let me make one thing crystal clear. I don’t have the illusion that the latest lift in stocks is anything more than just another bear market rally but that doesn’t mean that it can’t continue much longer than most expect and that you can’t make money in it. Bear market rallies are powerful and can lift all boats, not equally. The first stage is led by the most shorted and the worst-hit stocks. If there’s a second stage, the new leaders step up and outperform. The one drawback of the current push higher is that metals and other commodities are leading which means that inflation expectations will remain elevated and the Fed hawkish. The last FOMC meeting for the year is on Dec 14th. I suspect, most stocks will rally until then. Maybe, there could be a selloff in a week or so before it as some market participants will expect the Fed to remain on its current tightening warpath and take profits preemptively.

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Here’s a Google spreadsheet tracking all closed options and stock ideas shared on my private Twitter stream and emails for subscribers.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only and it should not be considered financial advice.

MarketSmith powers the charts in this video

Last week, it became clear that the Fed is not pivoting anytime soon. The price action in commodities and the latest payroll report confirmed Fed’s fears. Inflation is sticky and the Fed will have to remain on its current course of raising interest rates and reducing its balance sheet. When the Fed removes liquidity from the market, most stocks are likely to get a lower valuation.

Despite the selloff in the indexes, where tech stocks were hit the hardest, we remain in a market of stocks environment. There are good opportunities on both the long and the short side. Lately, more and better opportunities are on the short side, which is natural – most stocks follow the general direction of the market. 

The main indexes continue to make lower highs but they haven’t a new lower low yet. The main factor that saved the market from dropping last Friday was the decline in the US Dollar which has been highly negatively correlated to stocks this year. The message is clear. No rally in equities can sustain without the US Dollar falling. Can the latter really happen when the Fed is a lot more strict than other central banks with it comes to raising interest rates? Probably not, at least not for too long. 

There are still quite a few companies left to report earnings. One of the clear trends this earnings season is the decimation of software stocks. In fact, the cloud ETF, WCLD dropped almost 6% on Friday making new 52-week lows. In the meantime, crude oil was up 5%, and industrial metals ETF, XME was up 7%. This is a typical reflation move. We will know more next week, but if the moves from Friday follow through, the market is certainly not worrying about recession just yet.  

Don’t forget that midterm elections in the US are on November 8th and stocks tend to be extra volatility around in the days before and after them.

Try my subscription service which includes a private Twitter feed with option and stock ideas, emails with concise market commentary and actionable swing, intraday, and position trade ideas, the Momentum 40 list of market leaders, and much more. See some of the recent testimonials.

PERFORMANCE

Here’s a Google spreadsheet tracking all closed options and stock ideas shared on my private Twitter stream and emails for subscribers.

Check out my free weekly email to get an idea of the content I share with members.

Disclaimer: Everything I share is for educational and informational purposes only and it should not be considered financial advice.