Comments for Ivanhoff Capital http://ivanhoff.com Reaction to news is more important than news itself! Thu, 29 Jul 2010 13:15:16 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.com/ Comment on How markets work by ivanhoff http://ivanhoff.com/how-markets-work/#comment-258 ivanhoff Thu, 29 Jul 2010 13:15:16 +0000 http://ivanhoff.wordpress.com/how-markets-work/#comment-258 Melty, there are many sources for the all time high list. Ugly charts offer a list of stocks that are very close to their all time high: http://www.uglychart.com/cgi-bin/stoned.cgi You could also try Howard Lindzon's site. On the bottom right of his blog, there is a widget from Trade-Ideas that shows the stocks that are currently at their all time high: http://howardlindzon.com/ Melty,
there are many sources for the all time high list.

Ugly charts offer a list of stocks that are very close to their all time high:
http://www.uglychart.com/cgi-bin/stoned.cgi

You could also try Howard Lindzon’s site. On the bottom right of his blog, there is a widget from Trade-Ideas that shows the stocks that are currently at their all time high:
http://howardlindzon.com/

]]> Comment on How markets work by melty http://ivanhoff.com/how-markets-work/#comment-257 melty Thu, 29 Jul 2010 05:57:35 +0000 http://ivanhoff.wordpress.com/how-markets-work/#comment-257 Ivanhoff, Per the Blackstar study of buying all time highs - where does an investor obtain information on stocks making all time highs? Ivanhoff,

Per the Blackstar study of buying all time highs – where does an investor obtain information on stocks making all time highs?

]]> Comment on Filter the Noise by Six of the Best Linkfest — Economatix http://ivanhoff.com/2010/07/25/filter-the-noise/#comment-255 Six of the Best Linkfest — Economatix Tue, 27 Jul 2010 09:57:53 +0000 http://ivanhoff.com/?p=1006#comment-255 [...] Filtering noise in order to make reasonable investment decisions Ivanhoff Capital [...] [...] Filtering noise in order to make reasonable investment decisions Ivanhoff Capital [...]

]]> Comment on Filter the Noise by derek http://ivanhoff.com/2010/07/25/filter-the-noise/#comment-246 derek Sun, 25 Jul 2010 15:44:35 +0000 http://ivanhoff.com/?p=1006#comment-246 Nailed it again, bud...makes me think of what Soros said to Wien "The problem with you is that you come in every day feeling a need to do something. I only come in when there's something to do". Nailed it again, bud…makes me think of what Soros said to Wien “The problem with you is that you come in every day feeling a need to do something. I only come in when there’s something to do”.

]]> Comment on James Montier Looks at the Flaws of DCF Models by ivanhoff http://ivanhoff.com/2010/07/11/james-montier-looks-at-the-flaws-of-dcf-models/#comment-242 ivanhoff Sun, 18 Jul 2010 19:54:07 +0000 http://ivanhoff.com/?p=1061#comment-242 Those who use DCF rely mainly on sensitivity analysis, where different scenarios of growth and required risk are applied. If under the worst case scenario there is margin of safety, a position is considered for further investigation. Even with this approach, there is too much guesswork involved when it comes to cash flows forecasting. There are way too many factors that can impact a company's earnings power and some of them simply cannot be quantified. Beta is not a good measure of risk and it should not be incorporated in calculating the required rate of return. Correlations between stocks and between asset classes change all the time. Value investors need to concentrate on three types of risk: - valuation risk (function of liquidity); - finance risk (earnings power = ROC + earnings yield); - balance sheet risk (solvency risk). From my perspective, there is no such thing as true intrinsic value. It is an illusion, a moving target. Those who use DCF rely mainly on sensitivity analysis, where different scenarios of growth and required risk are applied. If under the worst case scenario there is margin of safety, a position is considered for further investigation. Even with this approach, there is too much guesswork involved when it comes to cash flows forecasting. There are way too many factors that can impact a company’s earnings power and some of them simply cannot be quantified.

Beta is not a good measure of risk and it should not be incorporated in calculating the required rate of return. Correlations between stocks and between asset classes change all the time.

Value investors need to concentrate on three types of risk:
- valuation risk (function of liquidity);
- finance risk (earnings power = ROC + earnings yield);
- balance sheet risk (solvency risk).

From my perspective, there is no such thing as true intrinsic value. It is an illusion, a moving target.

]]> Comment on James Montier Looks at the Flaws of DCF Models by G W Parry http://ivanhoff.com/2010/07/11/james-montier-looks-at-the-flaws-of-dcf-models/#comment-241 G W Parry Sun, 18 Jul 2010 13:08:15 +0000 http://ivanhoff.com/?p=1061#comment-241 I understand what you say but Warren B said that hed rather be ..." vaguely right than precisely wrong" Why split hairs about what equity risk premium to use and what growth rates to apply? - If a company passes the Warren and Graham balance sheet and other tests then i just use a standard 6% equity risk premium and apply accross the board assumpions on growth which the same for all This gives me a ball park area for the purchase price and using stnadard grwoth assumptions means i can compare and contrast 2 possible euqity opportunities against each other and decide which one or how much of both to buy - seems to work sweet for me and no Black n' Scholes anywhere to be seen! I like Graham's other two methods of calculating value and use them as well but more as a check on the DCF result. I understand what you say but Warren B said that hed rather be …” vaguely right than precisely wrong”

Why split hairs about what equity risk premium to use and what growth rates to apply? – If a company passes the Warren and Graham balance sheet and other tests then i just use a standard 6% equity risk premium and apply accross the board assumpions on growth which the same for all

This gives me a ball park area for the purchase price and using stnadard grwoth assumptions means i can compare and contrast 2 possible euqity opportunities against each other and decide which one or how much of both to buy – seems to work sweet for me and no Black n’ Scholes anywhere to be seen!

I like Graham’s other two methods of calculating value and use them as well but more as a check on the DCF result.

]]> Comment on James Montier Looks at the Flaws of DCF Models by Hot Links: Humanity on Wall Street. Sure. The Reformed Broker http://ivanhoff.com/2010/07/11/james-montier-looks-at-the-flaws-of-dcf-models/#comment-237 Hot Links: Humanity on Wall Street. Sure. The Reformed Broker Mon, 12 Jul 2010 11:01:32 +0000 http://ivanhoff.com/?p=1061#comment-237 [...] James Montier on the fallacy of discounted cash flow as the basis for securities analysis.  (IvanhoffCapital) [...] [...] James Montier on the fallacy of discounted cash flow as the basis for securities analysis.  (IvanhoffCapital) [...]

]]> Comment on Market philosophy, strategies and tactics by Kimi Vassure http://ivanhoff.com/2010/04/29/market-philosophy-strategies-and-tactics/#comment-230 Kimi Vassure Mon, 05 Jul 2010 20:17:26 +0000 http://ivanhoff.com/?p=862#comment-230 The partner and i generally really don't abandon responses nevertheless this for you to be these times! My personal bookmarked your about reddit! The partner and i generally really don’t abandon responses nevertheless this for you to be these times! My personal bookmarked your about reddit!

]]> Comment on The Underlying Dynamics of Momentum Investing by Abnormal Returns – Read For You http://ivanhoff.com/2010/06/29/the-underlying-dynamics-of-momentum-investing/#comment-224 Abnormal Returns – Read For You Sat, 03 Jul 2010 09:08:02 +0000 http://ivanhoff.com/?p=1027#comment-224 [...] The underlying dynamics of momentum investing.  (Ivanhoff Capital) [...] [...] The underlying dynamics of momentum investing.  (Ivanhoff Capital) [...]

]]> Comment on The Underlying Dynamics of Momentum Investing by Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns Abnormal Returns http://ivanhoff.com/2010/06/29/the-underlying-dynamics-of-momentum-investing/#comment-221 Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns Abnormal Returns Fri, 02 Jul 2010 18:01:38 +0000 http://ivanhoff.com/?p=1027#comment-221 [...] The underlying dynamics of momentum investing.  (Ivanhoff Capital) [...] [...] The underlying dynamics of momentum investing.  (Ivanhoff Capital) [...]

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