Solar, Wind and Nuclear Stocks Gone Wild

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When it comes to energy (and not only), I let the market (price action) does the thinking for me. It is not news for anyone that solar stocks ($TAN) have recently had a major comeback and are one of the best performing industries in 2013. They are not the only energy industry that has done well.

The Wind ETF $FAN is up 40% YTD and most of its gain occurred in the past three weeks.

Nuclear stocks have gone atomic this week with 100% moves in $USU and $URRE.

Despite expectations for a slowdown in the emerging markets economies, crude oil has cleared $100 and stayed there.

Coal and natural gas are the only dogs in the energy space.

I wonder what is the market trying to discount here. Typically, commodities start to outperform in the last stage of the recovery cycle, when inflation begins to rise. The latest inflation readings have been tepid, but market is usually forward-looking and discount 6 to 12 months into the future. It is not always correct, but we should always pay attention to what it is doing.

Railroad Stocks Are Setting Up Again

The beauty of prolonged market uptrends is declining correlation. It is a “market of stocks” environment, where corrections take the form of sector rotation. While one leading sector is taking a breath from a recent spike, another that has been consolidating takes the lead and breaks out.

Quite a few railroad stocks have been quietly building new bases over the past couple months and the renewed strength in the overall market might be the catalyst that helps them to break out to new multi-year highs. Don’t forget that we are also in the midst of an earnings season. Quarterly reports will play a significant role and could be the proverbial tipping points that start, accelerate or end an existing trend.

Take a look at these three setups in the railroad industry:

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How Are The Best Performing Stocks Of The Past Year Faring These Days

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As of today (July 6th), 171 stocks have doubled in the past 12 months. Relative strength beyond 2-3 years often leads to mean-reversion, but numerous studies have shown that stocks that outperformed in the past 3, 6 and 12 months are very likely to outperform as a group in the next 3, 6 and 12 months. The logic is very simple – stocks that go up 300% in a year, are only up 100% at some point of time. How have those stocks fared recently?

82 of the 171 doubles, went up 5% or more over the past 5 trading days.

32 of the 171 doubles, went up 10% or more over the past 5 trading days.Some of the biggest gainers include: $CLDX $AFOP $PBYI $ALNY $XRM $JKS $SPWR $PSUN $WGO $OWW

If you study carefully the best performing stocks in 3, 6 and 12 month horizons, you will positively reach the conclusion that during their rise, they form multiple smaller bases and give multiple opportunities for swing traders to profit handsomely. Granted, some people prefer to be less active and ride such stocks for as long as possible, without having to watch every tick. There are various different ways to approach the market and stocks that have already doubled are a good tool for both swing traders and investors. The main reason for that is psychological. Imagine how many people would dare to even consider stocks that have already doubled. Probably most would rather stay away. Market opportunities exist where most people are not willing to go. This is why over time, value and momentum have remained the two most reliable alpha generators. They are psychologically hard to practice.

One of the most simple and effective swing trading systems is to scan for stocks that have already doubled in the past year and then to look for some form of consolidation through time (sideways move) over the past 1-3 months. Keep in mind that those stocks are extremely volatile, which is a benefit in healthy markets, but a huge drawback during corrective times. You could learn more how to improve the odds of finding higher probability swing trading candidates here.

You could use various entry techniques:

– buy when it clears new 52-week highs;
– buy on a 3%+ move;
– buy in expectation of a breakout those stocks that are setting up near 52-week highs.

Everyone has a buying strategy. Very few have a well thought out selling strategy. Many of those high momo stocks are capable of delivering 10%+ moves inside a week, so risking 3-4% to make 10% is not a bad tactic.

A quick scan revealed the following rather enticing swing setups for next week: $ACAD $SBGI $NFLX $RVLT $CLVS $SNTS $SAIA